Class of 2008 and Class of 2009 stories are now available
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CW1853VJ?binding=kindle_edition&ref=dbs_dp_rwt_sb_pc_tkin
The Running Diaries by John Trainor
There is no longer a blog. Now there is only a book series.
Part III: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08XR1BWGC?ref_=dbs_m_mng_rwt_calw_tpbk_2&storeType=ebooks
Part IV: https://www.amazon.com/Running-Diaries-Part-IV/dp/B0CVVFQDGZ
2021 AAA 800m
AAA 800m
This is it. Last of the prediction pieces. If you’ve been
reading along in chronological order, you’ll know I’m not necessarily expecting
this, but this race could begin with Gary Martin going for an unprecedented triple
gold. It is what I can only call the Jimmy Springer triple and I’d really,
really like it to happen. But I’m nothing if not consistent, and when it comes
to doubling, I have a hard time picking against fresh legs. Unlike the 1600,
the top of this field will have some guys who have been waiting for a while to
get after it.
Let’s start the conversation with Darius Smallwood. The Pottstown
senior has the state lead this year, having run 1:52. But that’s not what makes
him interesting to me. What makes him interesting is the fact that Smallwood
routinely ran 1:53 or faster in dual meets with no one running within 20 seconds
of him. That’s absolutely wild. At Districts, when he had the best competition
of his season, he was handed his first surprise. The pace went through in only
about 59 seconds and the kickers took over, sending him down to third place in
the final standings. Smallwood will likely make things go here in the final.
Will he change strategy and go out the first 400 like no one can beat him, the
same as he did in his super successful dual meet runs, or will he feel out the
race and let things be a kickers battle once again with extra preparation for
how he might be able to win? That’s my biggest question mark heading into the
last distance event of the weekend.
If things do go tactical, Eric Albright looks like the
guy who will benefit most. He closed in a 54 second final 400 off a 59 second
start which is absolutely insane. The guy clearly has awesome speed, but he has
great strength as well. He’s been at 1:54-1:55 for a while (including 2 years
ago when he was 5th at states as a sophomore), but now he’s moved
into the 1:53s and honestly I think 1:52 or 1:51 is probably in his future. His
first priority will obviously be to win so I’m not expecting him to be the pace
pusher, but if Smallwood changes things up or Martin is feeling good and ready
to be aggressive, then Albright may get pulled to a big PR and a big gold.
Holden Emery is the other interesting name with fresh
legs. The CB East senior was second at the indoor state meet in 2020 and
returns to track states for the first time since then. Emery has hit 1:53.95
this season and also split a 1:53.66 on his team’s 4x800 relay. He’s proven
that he can handle the pressure of the big stage and proven he can produce in a
kicker’s race. If the pace is hot, we will see if he can lower that PR and upgrade
silver to gold.
Outside those three, it’s really going to be a matter of
whose legs are feeling good. Of the top names, Brady Bigger (1:53 this year,
District 6 champion), Tommy Bilderheiser (1:55, District 3 champion off a
kickers pace), Sean Adams (1:54), Thomas Hess (District 4 champion) are all
doubling off the 4x8. So too are Arik Harnish and Ryan Wolfe who could factor
into the front of Section 1 and end up medal contenders when the dust settles
on Heat 2. Bigger has the fastest PR but he will be tripling at this point and
could be on only fumes.
If you want a wildcard pick, you could bet o Jacob
Puhalla of Moon Area. The kid won the WPIAL championship (no small feat) and he’s
produced some fast times on big stages like Baldwin despite the fact that he’s
only a sophomore. His seed time is “only” 1:56.61 and he doesn’t have the 1:53-1:54
type credentials of your usual state title contender, but he’s clearly a gamer
and a winner and that kind of attitude tends to be what is most important at
states. Benjamin Horner and Sam Elsen out of District 1 boast 1:56 seed times
and survived the gauntlet that always is D1 so they are battle tested and ready
to challenge for the medal stand as well.
In the end, I think this race will come down to Albright and
Smallwood (although I will be keeping my fingers crossed that Martin racks up
two golds going into this event, because that would be so much fun). If
Smallwood takes it out aggressively from the start and runs his race, I think
that maximizes his chances to win, but it also sets him up as a target for the
rest of the field. It will take some real guts to run like that, but I’d love
to see him chase a 1:50 or 1:51 kind of time because Albright might be the only
other guy who can get there (barring a Joe Espinal situation – google it
youngsters). However, I think either way this race is run, I’m going to end up picking
Albright to take the victory. I just think he has all the tools and the
experience and that will make him tough to beat.
8. Benjamin Horner 1:55
7. Arik Harnish 1:55
6. Tommy Bildheiser 1:54
5. Jacob Puhalla 1:54
4. Holden Emery 1:53
3. Sean Adams 1:53
2. Darius Smallwood 1:52
1. Eric Albright 1:51
2021 AA 800m
AA 800m
Generally, I’m not a big doubling guy when it comes to
the State Championships. It’s just a very talented meet with great competition so
anything less than your best stuff could leave you vulnerable to get jumped by
somebody with more juice. That said, we’ve seen plenty of successes. In 2019,
Garrett Baublitz won both the 1600 and the 800 over Jonah Powell (who had
excellent performances in both events as well). Domenic Perretta won the 1600
and the 800 three years in a row from 2014 to 2016. Ryan Smathers nearly pulled
off the double in 2014 in windy conditions. Sam Havko hoisted both golds in
2009 (do you hoist medals? Feels like a trophy thing but I’m out of cool ways
to say winning two events, probably a sign that this bit is over). You get the
picture.
Here’s all the guys that can win both this year: Gabe
McConville, Kirk Stewart, Colton Sands, Brendan Colwell, Gabe Nichols, Luke
Seymour. That’s a pretty good list! I’ve talked a lot about these guys resumes
in the 1600 preview (worth a click if you’re into that sort of that, which you probably
are since you are here), but as you will quickly deduce in that post, I think Seymour
has the best chance of joining the double gold posse. Sands is a big talent,
but always struck me as a 32/16 type of guy. Would be super fun to see him
showcase some speed and pop a 1:55 kind of time here, but even a 1:55 may not
be good enough to win. Nichols is another guy who has the talent to drop a big
800 PR and he could perhaps avenge Jonah Powell’s attempt from 2019 and take a
pair of golds home to Grove City in his honor.
But as much as I’m hyping up the double potential, I
expect this race to go to somebody with fresh legs. And the most likely
candidate is Riverside’s Colby Belczyk. Colby dropped a great time of 1:54.94
at the district meet and things opened up for him with without Carson McCoy
(who bested him earlier in the season) contesting the event here at states.
Belczyk was one spot away from the finals in both the 800 and the 1600 at the
2019 state meet so he has some demons to exercise this year. He already
established himself in that direction with a great 2020 indoor states
performance, but I think this outdoor meet is where he will really shine.
The bigger question in the Riverside camp may be can Ty
Fluharty make this a different kind of double? Belczyk’s teammate has very
sneakily been gaining steam and actually enters the state meet as comfortably
the #2 overall seed with his 1:56.41 mark. For him, it may be as simple as
following the leader and pretending its practice. The junior has the talent,
now he just needs to prove he can handle the nerves on the big stage.
The other name we have to talk about here is Dock
Mennonite’s Stanley Saint-Fleur. The senior is the top seed in the open 400 and
split a 47 second quarter to make up nearly an 8 second gap on the anchor of a
4x4 (wow). Plus he’s run 1:53 in the open 800. So why am I not leading off today’s
discussion with the possibility of a 4-8 double for Stanley? Well, honestly,
because I don’t have a long list of examples. I’m not even sure I have any
examples of that double working out. Ryan Thrush, who was a 48 second open 400
guy and a 1:50 800 guy couldn’t pull off that double at states and he was
probably the best bet we’ve had in the last decade. If Stanley can pull it off,
he’ll make some serious history.
But Stanley may have a big impact on the results, even if
he doesn’t make it to the finish line with a blistering time. Saint-Fleur will
run out of the first section at states, but he may not be afraid to set a
blazing pace from the front. If he can’t hold on, he could still end up serving
as a pace maker for a surprise finisher (maybe Waynesburg’s Gabe McConville who
has run 1:57, but had a tough double at WPIALs last week). If Saint-Fleur
contributes to a fast pace, that will put extra pressure on the fast heat and
maybe we see a shocker of a result.
Some other sleepers to mention for this event include
Cole Frazier (our #3 seed who took down Nichols to stop what could have been a
historic triple victory, hard to call him a sleeper but I’m at that point of
the article), Josh Deremer (the District 11 champ who has run 1:59 this spring)
and Holden Cessna (District 5 has quietly started to establish itself as a home
for sleeper picks in the middle distances).
8. Josh Deremer 1:57
7. Gabe Nichols 1:57
6. Gabe McConville 1:57
5. Colton Sands 1:56
4. Ty Fluharty 1:56
3. Cole Frazier 1:55
2. Luke Seymour 1:55
1. Colby Belczyk 1:53
2021 AAA 1600m
AAA 1600m
The 1600 is always a really fun event at states and it usually
comes down to which kid is ready to drop a sub 60 second lap off a reasonable
to fast pace. This year, we’ll see if Gary Martin let’s the race unfold in its
usual fashion. The Archbishop Wood junior has already clocked an extraordinary
4:07 in the 1600 and quite frankly he made it look easy. With bordering times
of 8:49 and 1:53, it’s clear this guy has the chops to not just win the race,
but also attack Drew Magaha’s meet record of 4:07.32 (maybe even Paul
Vandegrift’s state record of 4:03.22). But here’s the problem, Martin doesn’t
only have this race to worry about. He’ll contest the 3200 before this and, if
he feels up to it, he’ll go for the 800 after that. It’s a tremendously
difficult triple against a tremendously talented runner. Who will win?
The good news for Martin is that he won’t be the only one
of his competitors that is sporting tired legs. Top seeds CJ Singleton, Weber
Long, Devon Comber and Graham Thomas all have the 3200 in the morning alongside
Martin (Dylan Throop and Jacob Hess from the “slow” section are in the deuce as
well). Plus Brady Bigger and Calvin Bailey will be racing the 4x8 (possibly
against each other) and contending for state gold. Depending on how Butler
attacks things, CJ Singleton and Skyler Vavro may also feature in the 4x8
(although my speculation is that they will pass on the relay).
So who does that even leave with fresh legs? District 1
Champion Declan Rymer steps into the spotlight. This could be a big moment for
Rymer. The kid has been a monster this year with times of 9:04 and 4:10 in the
long distance events, but he’s been overshadowed not just by Gary Martin’s
terrific season, but also by his teammate Aidan Barnhill’s record setting. In a
normal year, Rymer would be the favorite for either of his main distance
events, this season he feels almost like a “de-facto” contender because
everyone else is doubling, but I can assure he’s more than qualified. He’s got
the strength and he proved at districts that a sub 60 last lap is within his
wheelhouse. This guy is ready to go.
Skyler Vavro is another really interesting story. The
Butler standout admitted he had some disappointments during the fall, but he’s
been back with a vengeance in the spring. He’s got a great training partner in
Singleton and he had a major breakthrough at WPIALs with a 4:13.98 gold medal
performance. This kind of feels like it could be an Isaac Kole-esque moment
where Vavro caps off a career in the shadow of other big names (like Singleton
and his brother Sage) with a gold medal in the 1600. And yes, you are all
probably too young to remember Isaac Kole so you’ll have to google that
reference (there’s probably an article or two that mentions him on this site).
I always put emphasis on being fresh, but that’s not the
be all and end all. Plenty of guys have won this event with tired legs. Brady
Bigger is hoping to repeat the feat of State College alumn Alex Milligan, who
surprised almost everybody (not Sean Collins) with a 4:10 time to knock off
Josh Hoey and Mike Kolor after anchoring his 4x8 to a gold in 2016. Could
Bigger do the same thing? He’s actually runner faster in the open 8 than
Milligan, put up a better XC result (I mean, he won states), a better 3200
result and at the very least a similar 1600 PR prior to states. But Milligan
could really double. He proved it at the 2015 state meet and then doubled down
in 2016. Bigger didn’t have that 2020 state meet to prove himself, but he did
have the district meet where he won the 16 and the 8 (over a couple super
talented teammates) so he’s clearly not a slouch.
Devon Comber is one of the contenders for the 3200 title,
but he gave Rymer a heck of a fight on the double last week at districts in the
16. Maybe he can bottle that again in Shippensburg, especially if he gets beat
out for gold in the 32. Same can be said for CJ Singleton who has run 4:11 this
year and also has 1:55 speed (but could theoretically be on his third race of
the day). Or Weber Long who closed a 4:14 race in 56 seconds the morning after
his 3200 victory (still having a hard time getting over this). But just to reiterate,
we have Gary Martin in this field. The kid who ran 9:10-4:12-1:53 in a 48 hour
stretch without any competition and probably was feeling good enough to do more.
Maybe I should just not over think it? Eh, that’s not what etrain does.
As always, there’s lots of talent ready to scoop up a
medal in the middle of this field. Again, I’m not a big fan of the doubling
guys so I’m not giving them too much attention, but Trey Gannon has been lights
out for Lower Merion this year, Timothy Roden is just a sophomore, but he has a
ton of state experience, Mike Formica of Knoch has been running excellent times
since indoors, Caden Leen is multi-talented with some real speed and somebody
from the heat 1 group (maybe Maxwell or as a longshot perhaps Thrush) is going
to surprise, pop a big time and steal a medal from the fast heat. That just
feels how it will go, especially in a race where the 1600 where things
inevitably tend to get tactical (although again, Gary Martin is the exception
to seemingly every rule).
Ultimately, as I often do, I am picking with my heart and
not necessarily with my brain. Sometimes that pays off (see Dorenkamp, Kole, Brehm)
and other times it does not (see basically every other prediction I’ve made
ever).
8. Gavin Maxwell 4:17
7. Caiden Leen 4:17
6. Brady Bigger 4:15
5. Trey Gannon 4:14
4. Mike Formica 4:14
3. Declan Rymer 4:12
2. Gary Martin 4:11
1. Skyler Vavro 4:11
2021 AA 1600m
AA 1600m
Of all 8 of the races I’m writing about today, this one
may be the most interesting to me. On the surface, you’ve got Colton Sands who
is currently the reigning Cross Country (A), 3200m (AA) and 3,000m (everybody)
State Champion. But we haven’t seen Sands much this spring and I wasn’t even
sure if he was healthy before he and teammate Brendan Colwell popped at
districts, finished 1-2 in the 1600 and the 800 and announced they were still
really, really good at running. These guys inserted themselves in the
discussion for the state title, but have they had enough seasoning to actually
win this race over some proven speedsters?
A number of guys in this field have already proven 4:20
this season including Gabe McConville and Carson McCoy (the only two in this
field to do it at districts) as well as Gabe Nichols, Luke Miller and Luke
Seymour. Nichols had a dynamic district meet and has run the equivalent of 4:14
for 1600m already this spring. You can make a strong argument he should be your
title favorite. Luke Miller has run 9:06 for 3200 which is far and away the
best AA time this spring, but he does have the 3200 to run ahead of this state
final. Although he’s clocked a 4:16, it’s going to be tough to repeat that kind
of time with tired legs, especially if he’s already got a gold to celebrate
from earlier in the morning. Seymour operates more from the other side of the
coin. He came up as an 800 guy, starting from the time he was a freshman, and
he actually finished 6th in that event at 2019 states. Now he’s grown
up a bit, logged some extra miles and lowered his 1600 best to 4:18.01. But he’s
still got that wicked 800 speed if he needs it.
Unlike a lot of the other races, there’s real talent in
the “slow” section of this event. Most notably, Ian Zimmerman ended up there
after an easy win at the District 5 championships. Zimmerman was 4th
at states in 2019 in the 1600 and has low 4:20s ability. For company, he has
Zack Bucker (has run 4:26 in 2021, but will likely be doubling off the 4x8) and
Port Halabar (also likely doubling) along with sleepers Thomas Smigo, Anthony
Gargani and Joe Wolfe. I have to think Zimmerman will get after it on race day
and make a push for a top finish and if the second section gets tactical at
all, than Zimmerman could steal one of the marquee medals (and pull some of his
heat mates to fast times alongside him).
I haven’t given much time to the District 7 guys, but
they have 5 of the guys in the fast heat and the top 3 overall seeds, so maybe
I should. Kirk Stewart has been piecing together strong races for years at
South Park and he’s now a 4:21 and a 1:58 guy. He has state championship
experience as well, contesting the 1600 in 2019. Carson McCoy is only a junior,
but the kid has been putting on a clinic in 2021. You can make an argument he
would have been the favorite in the 800 had he chosen that even considering he’s
already posted a 1:54 time this spring. But he’s taken a liking to the 1600 and
a 4:18 mark puts him in contention for gold in this event. His 800 wheels may
take him over the top. Then of course you have Gabe McConville who beat all
those guys at districts. He’s run 1:57 and 9:44 to couple around his signature
distance and he’s already proven he can win major races against big
competition. It’s going to be hard to bet against any of these three on race
day.
Lots of sleepers in this event. I touched on some of the
slow heat guys, but also watch for Mitchell Brett of Kutztown, Toby Cree of
Central Cambria (if he has enough left after the 4x8) and Sean Aiken of Eden
Christian (only a sophomore, but has some real talent as proven during XC).
There’s certainly plenty of 800 speed in this event (it
feels like half the field is qualified in that event as well), but I think
there is enough aggressive runners to help keep this thing fast enough that
Zimmerman can’t steal it. The biggest question I have is whether Sands (and
Colwell) have enough fitness right now to contend for gold, or if they won’t be
able to hang when the real kicking starts. There’s a lot of talent on that
Penns Valley roster, it’s just hard to know where the health is. I hate to pick
against talent, but I really like the way Luke Seymour has been running. The guys
out west are absolutely terrific, but I think Seymour comes up clutch and
topples the TSTCA crew to steal a state gold.
8. Mitchell Brett 4:24
7. Ian Zimmerman 4:22
6. Kirk Stewart 4:21
5. Brendan Colwell 4:20
4. Gabe McConville 4:18
3. Carson McCoy 4:17
3. Gave Nichols 4:17
2. Colton Sands 4:16
1. Luke Seymour 4:15
2021 AA 4x800m
AA 4x800m
I wish I could say I had read on this one. I mean, beyond
the obvious anyway. Central Cambria enters the meet with an 8:01 mark from
districts. Only Hughesville in District 4 joined Cambria under 8:10 and only 6
teams hit the SQS last week. So I guess it’s easy, pick Central Cambria, right?
Beyond the 8:01, there’s a lot to like on the Cambria
roster. This squad was 9th at states in 2019, just off the podium.
That’s not something that a team forgets quickly and I expect they will be out
for blood at this year’s championships. Nobody sub 2 in the open this season,
but Toby Cree has run 4:25 and is a lights out XC runner. It’s a well-balanced,
deep team with a guy who can be a star in the right moment.
It seems like a straightforward pick, but that’s never
how states plays out so let’s dig in on some other contenders. For starters,
you’ve got Hughesville (2nd fastest time of the week) whose big dog
Hunter Foust dropped the 3200 so he could be fresh for this relay, you know
that means they think they’ve got the pieces to make a run. There’s also
Fairview who has Buckner and Grechanyy on the roster, but Buckner has a 1600 to
consider later in the day and Grechanyy will be doubling off a 3200 where he
may spend a lot of time in the lead pack. That’s a tough double for him and could
hurt Fairview’s chances of making a run. Maybe their District 10 rivals, Grove
City, will make a push? They have Gabe Nichols ready and waiting on their
roster, but the senior may get the chance to focus on the open events after a
super busy district meet where he ran on the 4x8 as well as the 32, 16 and open
8. My guess is he goes for the 16 victory with fresh legs which probably knocks
Grove City out of title contention.
The other teams to hit the SQS at districts were Saint Joseph’s
Catholic of District 6 and South Williamsport of District 4. Saint Joseph’s has
four guys who have proven themselves in open events, led by Jonah Clark who
clocked a 2 flat at districts and XC standout Josh Hershbine. District 4 has a
history of producing top tier teams in the 4x8 (they accounted for 5 of the 12
finalists in last year’s state championships) and South Williamsport could add
to that depth this year with sub 2 man Quaid Molino and individual state
qualifier Port Habalar. They also have a 51 second 400m runner who, if he can
find the endurance, could be a real game changer as this team seeks out the
gold. I like their sleeper potential.
You can never count out Wyomissing, the defending state
champions from 2019 who always find a way to contend for state gold. They didn’t
stagger at their district meet, but they got the job done with a decisive win.
They should get a boost in front of the home crowd this weekend. I’d also keep
an eye on district champs New Hope Solesbury and Riverview.
I’m going with a pretty chalky set of picks here so try
not to judge me too much. I like Central Cambria as a fresh, focused squad with
their eggs in the right basket. That said, I don’t expect the gap to be as wide
as those seed cards might otherwise indicate.
8. Mid Valley 8:14
7. New Hope-Solebury 8:14
6. Fairview 8:11
5. Wyomissing 8:10
4. Saint Joseph’s 8:07
3. Hughesville 8:05
2. South Williamsport 8:02
1. Central Cambria 7:58
2021 AAA 4x800m
AAA 4x800m
Central Bucks West and State College. The teams have
combined to win five of the last six AAA state championships. CB West is
currently on a three year winning streak as they won the last three contested
state championships dating back to 2017 when they edged out , who else, but State
College 7:40 to 7:41 to win gold. At 2020’s indoor state championships, State College
won the fast heat and the state title in 7:52. CB West won the slower section and
grabbed a set of medals. It seems like these two teams have been circling each
other for years and 2021 may bring us another epic match-up.
In my opinion, State College enters this one with the
clear favorite status. They won their district meet uncontested and still ran
the fastest time of the week. They had three individual state qualifiers in the
800. They are the defending indoor state champions and they have the reigning
Cross Country state champion in Brady Bigger. It feels like this team can get
to low 7:40s if they have the right competition and that’s really hard to beat
most seasons.
The three time defending champions from CB West don’t boast
the same individual times as the Little Lions, but the boys I like to call the
Yellow Jackets (I think they are technically the Bucks which is even better and
I’m upset I never thought of that) do have a 1:54 man in Carter Fitzgerald (who
has some great quarter speed to pair with his 800 speed), a 1:58 from Conor
Gross and 1:59/4:24 from Eric Mass. Plus, they’ve got a legacy to protect out
in Shippensburg. And they went all in on the relays which could play to their
benefit. West was really tested at the District Championships, Haverford gave
them some real push early and North Penn and the familiar jersey of Pennridge
were skulking as well. It will be interesting to see if that proves to be a
good test that makes the Yellow Jackets battle-tested for states or if it is a
sign that they can be toppled.
But enough about these two teams. I can hear you yelling
from your computer chair (eh, who am I kidding, you’re reading this on a cell
phone while you’re sitting on the toilet). It’s taken me way to long to mention
the boys from Lewisburg. That’s at least partially because I’m so used to them
being a AA team, I was already handing them the trophy for that state
championship and I didn’t even realize they had been bumped up a classification
(looks like their girls team is still AA ironically which is super weird given
the schedule changes). But let’s be honest here, Lewisburg is a threat to win
the AAA state title without a doubt. They went toe to toe with State College
already this year and just barely were edged out. They just soloed 7:51 which
just missed SC for top time of the week.
Real ones know (that’s a thing kids say right?) that they’ve
got Thomas Hess, who just dropped a 1:56 to win districts, Calvin Bailey, who
just popped off a 4:19 to win districts and Gianluca Perrone, who posted a
1:57. James Koconis has run under 2 minutes as well. The relay is so good that
Elijah Adams (ran 2 flat in the open at districts) and Jacob Hess (sub
9:20/4:21 double at districts) don’t even to be included on the squad (I would
have been intrigued to see what Jacob could have done on a relay carry though).
Most of these fast individual times came recently (like two days ago recently),
but that’s a sign they are clicking at the right time. I really like this team
a lot and I think they are experienced enough at this stage that they can handle
the pressure. After all, they’ve won two straight XC team titles.
Alright, this post is tracking to be well over 1,000
words so I hope you like reading because I still haven’t talked about a few
teams that I think could challenge for the win. I’ll try and speed through
this. Butler is an interesting team. They’ve got two absolute super stars in CJ
Singleton and Skyler Vavro so right there they have the potential to be low 7:50s
high 7:40s. That said, Singleton will have a 3200 in his legs and both guys are
among the top seeds in the open 16. Even if Butler is chasing a team title (and
I can never keep track of who is or isn’t chasing that thing), it still may be
optimal to ditch the 4x8, let some other guys get the experience and hope for
some magic. The team pulled down a medal a few years back without Noah Beveridge
(my goodness was that three years ago now?) so they’ve proven they can be deep.
Cedar Crest, North Penn and Pennridge are the teams that
not only have a lot of talent, but have a lot of pedigree as well. Cedar Crest
knocked off CB West in 2010 to win the state championship and is an annual
medal threat, picking up hardware at the 2019 outdoor meet and 2020 indoor meet.
Bildheiser is a monster and I think he can hang with anybody on anchor. Ryan
Wolfe will need to be their x-factor. And North Penn has won the outdoor state
title 9 different times (their due at this point, haven’t won since 2008). Both
of those teams seem like good bets for the medal stand, but Pennridge is my
real wildcard. This team always finds a way to come on strong at the exact
right moment. Most notably for me was their 2015 state finish where, after
graduating Joey Logue (a 1:51 guy and an all-time great half-miler), the school
busted out an incredible 7:40 runner-up finish with three underclassmen. Even
in 2019, Pennridge laid relatively low at districts and then nearly stole the
state title. If it wasn’t for an absolutely monster anchor from Blake Ewaskey (I
had him at about 1:50), Pennridge might have taken the gold (shout out to Ethan
Zeh as well who carried Radnor ahead of Pennridge for Silver). Reice has been strong
this year and Lera-Lozano is a really nice piece who I could see having a
breakthrough at the 800 (has shown a lot of ability at the longer stuff, but
Pennridge knows how to coach up that speed).
Oh man, still so many good teams. Hempfield won Lebanon
Lancaster Leagues in the 4x8 (over Cedar Crest) and although they were probably
hoping for more at districts, I think they can reset and refocus this weekend.
I expect a big bounce back. Lampeter Strong is another fun district three team.
Arik Harnish is their best guy and he runs second leg which I always find
incredibly fun. Those kind of strategies can really pay dividends at states.
Plus they’ve got a freshman Colin Whitaker who runs like he’s a senior. Big
talent (12th at states in XC). Haverford was really good at the
District 1 meet. They didn’t quite close it out, but the pieces are all there
for a run into the top 4, especially since this appears to be each of their
runners only event of the day. And I can’t leave out Twin Valley who has an explosive
talent in Noah Taylor who can do everything from run 1:55 to 9:24.
In the “slow” heat, it feels likely that someone will
produce a medal. Even though the fast heat is stacked, history says that the
slow heat winner generally (not always) finds a way onto the podium. And by
history, I mean indoor states because this sort of thing has never happened
before outdoors. Your best et for that would probably be Seneca Valley (1:57
guy plus they may throw Noah Peterson on the relay who is a long distance guy,
but a talented guy and sometimes that’s all that matters), North Allegheny
(speaking of talented guys, they are the reigning XC state champs), or LaSalle
(has an armada every year, it’s just a matter of how they will choose to deploy
it). Pittsburgh Central Catholic is really good as well, I just didn’t have a
fun parenthetical expression for them so they got the short end of the stick.
Ultimately, I think this is State College’s race to lose.
Seeing their top three guys at districts was really impressive and I’m not
ready to pull the trigger on an ultimate David vs Goliath upset pick (based on
school size at least) in Lewisburg. So I’ll lean on the 2020 indoor state
champions and the XC state champion and predict they take care of business to
bring the state golds back to Happy Valley and end the Yellow Jackets win
streak.
8. Haverford 7:53
7. Hempfield 7:51
6. North Penn 7:50
5. Cedar Crest 7:48
4. CB West 7:47
3. Pennridge 7:46
2. Lewisburg 7:44
1. State College 7:42
2021 AAA 3200m
AAA 3200m
The biggest story of this weekend, heck this season, is Archbishop Wood’s Gary Martin. The junior beat a star-studded AA field in Cross Country for his first state title and then spent the winter dropping absurd times before adding his name to the PA record books in the spring. His times of 8:49, 4:07 and 1:53 are all great, but the first two are most notable. If you ignore indoor track performances, Gary is 3rd all-time for Pennsylvania and 4th in the 1600 (behind 3 performances that happened before he was born).
But as impressive as all those times are, Gary is looking
for history at the state meet. He will be attempting the 3200, 1600, 800 triple
which has never been done before in real life (I call it the Jimmy Springer
triple based on a character in my fiction book the Running Diaries). Now this
triple is almost impossible because of the level of doubling required, but this
first step will not exactly be a cake walk.
First off, Martin will have to contend with a couple of other
sub 9 3200 guys in Devon Comber of Horsham and Aidan Barnhill of Downingtown
West. Comber has shown he has incredible finishing speed, closing in sub 60 at
the district meet for the victory over Barnhill (I believe he also ran sub 60
when he ran 8:53 at Henderson). Comber was about 4 seconds back of Martin at
Henderson, but with hotter conditions and now Rob DiDonato to help share the
pace out front, things could pack up a bit more and make this a kicker’s race.
Barnhill has awesome closing speed too and in any other year 8:58 and 4:09 type
times would make him the runaway favorite and talk of the town. He’s no slouch
and, although Martin and Comber have had his number the last few times out, states
could be the day he turns the table.
Historically, the 3200 has been a senior driven event.
Although we’ve seen some really awesome underclassmen (Jake Brophy, Nate Henderson,
Sam Affolder, Dan McGoey), seniors have won the last 6 AAA 3200 titles (the
last junior to win was Ethan Martin in 2013). Something ironic, before Martin,
there were 6 seniors who won in a row after the prior junior victory in 2006.
Coincidence? Yeah, probably. But maybe the trend holds. The junior may be Gary
Martin, but I could also see it being one of two other district champions.
The first is Weber Long of Greencastle Antrim. The junior
won the D3 title in the 3200 (over a really talented performer in Graham
Thomas) and then followed it with a victory in the 1600. Long’s 1600 time was
4:14 and he did it off a 56 second final lap! That’s absolutely blazing. Before
that Long also outkicked State’s College’s all-star 1:53 runner (and reigning
XC state champ) Brady Bigger to win the Mid Penn 1600. Long’s PR is “only” 9:12
(which is an incredible time), but we didn’t see him in the blazing conditions
of Henderson’s Invite. Otherwise, he might have been in the sub 9 club. I
really like Long’s upside as a sleeper.
The other guy I think could surprise is CJ Singleton. Don’t
let the 9:32 seed time fool you. Singleton has already run under 9:10 for 3200
and he’s dropped a 4:11 in the 1600 to boot. The WPIAL championship was more a “taking
care of business” type performance where he grabbed the gold and called it a
day. During the XC season, I was very impressed with the Butler junior and he
actually would have been my pick to win the state championship had a made official
predictions. Ultimately, Singleton didn’t take down gold, but I think he won
his section (again, I can never keep these straight) and how knows, maybe if
everyone was together, he could have surprised for the upset. Do not count this
guy out.
I think these 5 and Graham Thomas of Penn Manor (has run
9:08 this year, runner-up to Weber at Districts, 3rd at XC states)
are the major contenders, but there are obviously a lot of other names who
could contend. J. Henry Lyon not only has one of the best names in the competition,
but he also just dropped a 9:12 in the 3200. He’s a super accomplished XC
runner who seems to show up at the state meet. Lyon is another guy who hasn’t
necessarily seen the competition the Philly area guys have during the regular
season, but when he got the opportunity against Jacob Hess of Lewisburg
(another real big talent), he made the most of it and dropped the second
fastest time of district week. Lyon is technically the top returner from 2019’s
state meet where he was the top sophomore in 14th.
Dylan Throop of General McLane has also run 9:12 this season
(chasing CJ Singleton out west) and Throop proved he could deliver on the big
stage. Throop was the 2019 XC state champion, upsetting Juniata’s all-star
Garrett Baublitz.
I could certainly keep going (Stephen Schousen of JP McCaskey
has run sub 9:20 this year, LaSalle has three guys who qualified as a team at
Districts, including sophomore Drew Brill who was the top 10th
grader at AAA XC states in 12th, freshman Ryan Pajak of Ringgold is
a kid that I have been super impressed with his poise at his age, I mentioned
Hess who is a monster in the strength department), but all of these guys are
awesome, that’s how they ended up at the state championship. Ultimately, this
is a deep race and, if conditions are hot, some big names were falter and some new,
previously unheralded guys will establish themselves as future stars.
All this in mind, I’m very intrigued to see how this race
unfolds. Gary Martin will be racing his first of three races so, in theory, he may
be trying to save something for his later races. However, I don’t think that’s
how Gary operates. He seems like the kind of guy who goes out, sets a brutal
pace and dares the rest of the field to follow. That could hurt him in future
events when he is doubling and tripling, but I think that gives him the best
chance to win the 3200 given the potent kicks of guys like Comber and Long and
Martin’s clearly top tier strength.
That said, I think I’m going upset here. I like the idea of a senior keeping the title in house and I feel this will end up Devon Comber’s gold medal (could be a Ross Wilson type upset from the 2014 state championships for those who remember that far back). I think Comber can hang well enough to the pace and he finds that last gear to get the win at the finish. This could be a bit poetic as well given that Devon just missed the XC state crown, diving a the line to try and get those last seconds that separated him from Brady for the gold medal.
8. Dylan Throop 9:097. J. Henry Lyon 9:09
6. Graham Thomas 9:07
5. CJ Singleton 9:05
4. Aidan Barnhill 9:02
3. Weber Long 9:01
2. Gary Martin 8:58
1. Devon Comber 8:58
2021 AA 3200m
AA 3200m
The AA 3200 will not feature the reigning XC, indoor 3k
and outdoor 3200 state champion, Colton Sands, but that doesn’t mean we will be
missing an accomplished favorite at the top of the line-up. Jenkintown’s Luke
Miller enters this meet having run big PRs during the 2021 season including a
4:16 in the 1600 and a jaw dropping 9:06 in the loaded Henderson 3200. Very few
AA guys enter the post season with a time that quick (only guy I can think of is
Dominic Hockenbury, who won three straight AA 3200 titles from 2014 to 2016). Miller
has won a couple state titles with his team in XC, most notably when he was the
#1 man on the winning roster this past fall and his older brother Jack was
runner-up in this event the last time it was contested in 2019.
Although Miller’s PR is well above his competition, nothing is guaranteed at states – especially in the 3200. A slew of guys will be gunning to play David against Goliath. The most notable name may be Chris Hine, who ran the fastest time of the field at his district championships. The senior from Holy Redeemer was 5th in AA XC states this past fall (behind 4 guys who will compete in AAA on the track) and is hitting his stride at the right time with a 9:35 PR victory at his district meet. Hine’s been a dominant force in District 2, but he hasn’t seen the competition Miller has throughout the last five months. We’ll see if that proves to be inexperience or a sign that he just needed the right push to pop off another big PR.
The other top seeds based on District times are Michael Grechanyy of Fairview in District 10, Logan Strawser of East Juniata (D4), Kevin Jumper of Holy Cross (D2) and Brock Pennington of North East (D10).
Jumper likely played a big role in Hine’s PR at the district meet, as the Holy Cross senior was battling tooth and nail for that district title early last week. Jumper was second in the fall at A XC states (a second straight top 10 finish) and he spent his early years learning under Andrew Healey, an incredibly accomplished distance runner in both XC and track. Jumper definitely has the strength for a grueling final, the question will be more about what his track speed is.
Grechanyy and Pennington of District 10 both should be in contention for a top 3 finish. Neither was the district champion as Gabe Nichols earned that gold (he will compete in the 16 and the 8 at states), but both are plenty accomplished. Both guys medaled at this past year’s XC state meet, with Pennington getting all the way up for 7th overall. Grechanyy has not only run 9:34 and 2:01 this season, but he’s also one of just a handful of runners in this field that actually has experience at states in this event (he was 21st in 2019).
Logan Strawser of East Juniata, is just a sophomore and was something of a out of nowhere (from my perspective anyway) district champion. He knocked off Hunter Foust of Hughesville who has been a big name in this district for the past couple years despite entering the meet with just a 10:16 seed time. Typically there are a few young guys who get on the podium in Shippensburg, but the 3200 is a tough place to hang for non-seniors. Strawser is one of just 2 non-seniors in the top 13 seeds. This kid has a Cinderella story going and I’m excited to see where it goes next.
In terms of sleeper picks, look no further than District 7. There is always a ton of talent in the WPIAL, but it looks like fast times were not in store on either the AA side or the AAA side when it came to the end of the day at that meet. Patrick Malone of Winchester Thurston won the title in 9:53, but don’t forget he’s run 9:36 this year. Most years, the top guy wearing a Winchester Thurston jersey is a threat for at least the podium if not the gold. Malone was 8th at the A XC state meet, but I believe he won his “section” (don’t quote me on that, I never can quite remember how they split it up). Also coming from District 7 are Adam Lauer and Mason Ochs (two other returns from last year’s state meet, the later of which has a sub 16 XC PR) and Lance Nicholls (Malone’s teammate at Winchester Thurston who is also a state qualifier in the 1600).
I’ve also got to mention Thad Smith of Penns Valley (had a fantastic XC state meet this past year and has arguably the best training partners in the state in Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell), Adam McLaughlin of Punxsutawney (this team has put together a nice stretch in XC as well with McLaughlin picking up the charge) and Van May of Bedford (really, really talented XC performer who feels like he is the right race away from popping a great track time). By the way Dan Myers, the District 3 champion, has run 4:27 and has a bit of “home track advantage” given that District 3 just ran here last week.
Ultimately, I think this is Miller’s race to lose. It would be a bit poetic for Luke to take the title back for the family after Jack just missed it at the last state met. But I actually could see Luke’s victory playing out more like another Miller, Brendan Miller, who won the title in 2018. That year, Brendan had a solid advantage in the PR department and ran an aggressive race, but a controlled race and he was able to outlast the field. Undoubtedly, someone behind him will step up and find a big PR, but I could see that being any of a long list of guys. I think I like Malone as the sneaky pick.
8. Van May 9:40
7. Michael Grechanyy 9:37
6. Dan Myers 9:37
5. Brock Pennington 9:36
4. Chris Hine 9:32
3. Kevin Jumper 9:30
2. Patrick Malone 9:28
1. Luke Miller 9:20
2021 State Championship Previews
Event by Event Previews:
AAA 3200mAA 3200m
AA 800m
It’s States week in Pennsylvania and, naturally, that means I’m going to write State Meet Previews. Yes, I’ve only been half paying attention for the last three years, but that won’t stop me from pretending like I know what I’m talking about.
Bravado aside, this year’s state championships are very different than past years. After over a decade’s worth of state predictions, where I carefully developed a formula that led to average results, the 2021 state championship will turn Shippensburg’s typical structure on its head. In a typical year, there would be trials and finals for all events (besides the 32), meaning that the state champion would be determined strictly by head-to-head result. That’s not the case this time around as there will be multi-heat finals and the fastest time gets the gold medal.
This may sound like semantics, but it’s actually a huge change. Just think about the hot weather this past weekend and how that drove some more tactical results in the distance events. The District 3 and District 1 championships in the 800 went out in around 59 seconds and then the boys negative split it. Now, most of the top finishers from the fast heat at those meets still finished at the top of the standings, but at States, those “slow” heats are going to be even more talented and the incentive to just go for it and set a fast pace are arguably much higher. We’re almost guaranteed to see slow heat medalists and we may even see an upset from the slow heat depending on how tactical people are prepared to get (although if Eric Albright can close in 54 off a 59 first lap, it may not matter).
The new schedule also put a lot more emphasis on the district meet results. If you are a team like State College, you could have qualified for states in the 4x8 with only an 8:20 (and in past years, that’s probably closer to what they would have run), but this year they had to run all out to make sure they got a fast enough seed time (didn’t prove to be much of an obstacle for them as they are very good, but still). So maybe the extra hard effort sits in their legs a little more? I actually think this point won’t be that big of a deal, but it’s just another variable to put into the model *pushes glasses up on nose*.
The other big wildcard here is doubling. Back when you had to run trials and finals, coaches and athletes had to be a little more selective about which events to participate in. Some big names in the 32, would scratch the 1600 so that they wouldn’t put the extra prelim race in their legs. But this year, if you’re someone like Devon Comber, you’d think you might as well try the 1600 even if the 3200 is your focus. Maybe Gary Martin will go for the 32-16-8 triple. This year, it’s only 3 races instead of 5. So not only is doubling more like to be attempted, it may also be easier to do.
And lastly, for a data guy like myself, we are working without a prior year state meet. Last time we had outdoor states was 2019 and a lot has changed since that time. We didn’t have an indoor state championship in 2021. Even XC states this past fall was sort of weird because guys like Brady Bigger and CJ Singleton didn’t actually race head-to-head. The fact that these other state meets didn’t happen or happened differently doesn’t really impact the athletes, they know what they are doing at this point, so this is really just a paragraph about me trying to make it seem like my life is very hard and that when my predictions are inevitably very wrong it’s just because of the lack of data *adjusts pocket protector on shirt*.
Despite all of these terrible, crippling obstacles, I will be bravely forging ahead and making state predictions. As soon as the performance list comes out, I’ll start work on the 3200 predictions, but I’d like to see where they officially break up the heats for the 4x8, 16 and 8 before releasing those predictions because technically I think the heat breakout could have an impact on things as noted above.
In the meantime, enjoy the week, stay healthy and, as always,
stay classy.
PA XC All Decade Team: An etrain Original Series
With the 2019 Footlocker Championships in the rearview mirror, a decade’s worth of Pennsylvania High School Cross Country is in the books. This 10 year stretch seemed to have it all. We started the decade with aqua jogging, a hydra monster and a state champ with two first names. Over time, we added a classification, retired a blog, rewrote the record books, started a blog, uploaded the record books to the cloud and retired a blog. And to cap it all off, we saw upsets, a plan coming together and a state champ with two first names. It has really hit all the check marks.
Seeing as I am now an old (, old,) man, I have managed to be around to follow all of this. And now, because the “e” in “etrain” probably stands for egotistical, I want to take some time to write a lot of words about it and post it on the internet so that less than 25 people can read it.
Coming in January 2020, I’ll be dropping a series of posts that will be covering the decade that was in PA XC. XC talk during track season isn’t necessarily the smartest idea I’ve ever had, but if you look back through some of my old posts, its definitely not my dumbest.
There will be stories, rankings and a variety of blasts from the past. It would also be cool to get interviews, fan memories and guest spots. But those are up to you if you think this sounds fun.
The rest of the details are still being flushed out, but I wanted to make everyone aware early just to get the ball rolling.
Penntrack, if you want the rights hit me up. Otherwise, I’ll throw this on a blog (probably with a new link). It will be completely free, no subscription/email required. Just like the good old days.
If this idea seems like something you’d like, spread the news and comment below with your ideas and opinions. If it sounds terrible, feel free to share those opinions as well. All press is good press I guess.
And, *Forrest Gump voice*, that’s all I have to say about that.
Testing ... Testing ... Is this thing still on?
Well, TrainStation, I’ve officially brushed back the cobwebs that were covering my keyboard. For one night only, etrain will be doing etrain things one more time.
First, have to give a shout out to the PA Hub for putting in the hours while I was off doing ... well, a lot more sleeping mostly. So thank you for carrying the torch and giving everybody a place to check in.
It looks like there is a little gap in the action right now and, with states coming up, I figured I can bang out one more state preview so that the running nerds like me (and maybe some cool people who knows) can get their fix.
So one night. Eight previews. One million views. Well, not that night, but did you guys see the blog got there while we were gone? That's fun.
So one night. Eight previews. One catch. I will not be posting the previews up on the site. To get them, send an email to lxvplus@gmail.com between now and Tuesday night and you will be added to the list of people who will receive the free preview posts.
If you don't want access to all eight posts (AA and AAA 4x8, 16, 8, 32), then feel free to specify your picks. Burner emails are fine. Heck, they are even encouraged.
I know you guys probably don't love this strategy for posting, but, hey, I'm curious how many individual readers are out there.
Feel free to use the blog as a place for comments and to make your own predictions. Once I make them, I'll post my picks on here. You just have to get on the mailing list if you want the full articles.
All the best and best of luck.
Doha Diamond League Recap
I know
it’s been almost a week since the Doha meet, but I figured I’d recap it anyway.
I don’t think anyone was hanging on by a thread waiting for the recap and, let’s
face it, this is mostly for me so I can gather and organize my thoughts to help
me enjoy the next Diamond League races and the World Championships to come
later this year. So let’s get to it.
Women’s Hurdles
As is
the case for what feels like every Diamond League meet, the 400 hurdles was the
first contest of the day. And, as has also started to feel familiar, Daliah
Muhammad put down a dominate performance for the victory. She ran 53.61 to win
by over a second (fellow American Ashley Spencer was second). It wasn’t the most
stacked field ever assembled, but it was certainly a major statement. Muhammad
likes to go out hard and then see if she can hold on and, in this instance, she
had no problems in the home stretch. Everyone was ready to crown Sydney
McLaughlin after last summer, but Muhammad is the defending Olympic Champion
with a rising amount of big race experience and a ton of talent. I think she
has a shot at the world record before Tokoyo 2020 is over.
In the
short hurdles, Jamaica’s Danielle Williams picked up a bit of a surprise
victory with a 12.66 clocking. Don’t get it twisted, Williams is awesome (I
mean, she’s the 2015 world champion after all), but the Americans have recently
owned this event, particularly Brianna McNeal. Yet the USA was nowhere to be
seen as McNeal finished 7th overall and Sharika Nelvis ended up the
top American in 3rd (12.78). Tobi Amusan of Nigeria came through for
second in an impressive showing. The 22-year-old was bounced from the
semi-finals in the London World Championships and the Rio Olympics.
The Jumps
It was
a slow start for the #1 Pole Vaulter in the world in Doha, but ultimately Sam
Kendricks righted the ship when it mattered most and came away with another DL
victory. But the biggest story from this event was the reemergence of Thiago
Braz of Brazil. After winning the Olympics on home soil, Braz has struggled in
the Pole Vault the last two years, but mixing it up with Kendricks until the
final round has to be a confidence booster. He finished the day at 5.71, his
best mark since 2016.
In the
women’s high jump, the large shadow cast by Mariya Lasitskene was gone, meaning
a new star would have the opportunity to steal a DL gold. Many suspected it
would be Bulgaria’s Mirela Demireva, currently the world #2 in the event, but
instead it was a coming out part for 17 year old Yaroslava Mahuchikh. The
Ukranian youth cleared a lifetime best of 1.96 to pick-up the victory. She and countrywoman
Yuliya Levchenko (world #3) are possibly the two best young stars hoping to
usher in the new era of high jumping. But still, this meet reminds us that nobody
can catch Lasitskene when she is jumping anywhere near her best.
Caterine
Ibarguen may be known for the Triple Jump, but the defending diamond league
champion as really established herself as a contender for double gold after yet
another major victory in Doha. Ibarguen won the long jump with a best of 6.76 it
was considered one of the best fields of the day. She jumped 6.93 last year
which was easily a lifetime best and, considering how strong Rojas has been in
past triple jumps, she may actually have a better shot at gold in the Long Jump
than the Triple. By the way, it looks like this event was Ibarguen’s 36th
DL victory in her career.
The
breakout star in the Long Jump was Maryna Bekh-Romanchuk of Ukraine. She was a
narrow second to Ibarguen with her best jump only 2 centimeters back. Clearing
6.74 is the best Bekh’s performed since 2016. She’s yet to be a true factor in
the global championships as she hasn’t even landed a jump in a final.
200m
Turkey’s
Ramil Guliyev, the defending world champion, showed why he was the class of
Friday’s field with a 19.99 runaway victory. It actually looked like Guliyev
might be in trouble after Aaron Brown ran a spectacular bend, but Guliyev
calmly turned on the jets in the final 50 to blow the race open (Alex Quinonez
of Ecuador got up for second). Guliyev is a really strong 200 guy which going
to serve him well when rounds starting coming into play in global
championships. Lyles has stolen all his shine recently (and has been close to
untouchable at 200), but I think Guliyev will give him all he can handle the next
time he hits the track in Doha.
If you’re
calling Guliyev’s win emphatic, I’m not sure how to describe Dina Asher-Smith.
The women who absolutely rocked the European Championships last year
(10.85/21.89) threw down a 22.26 to scorch the rest of the field by 0.64
seconds. But ultimately, the Asher-Smith story will be decided by her
performances against the big dogs later this summer. We know she can run fast,
but she has to prove she can win consistently when it counts. This is her third
individual DL victory and she’s still searching for a first individual global medal.
Jamile Samuels of the Netherlands picked up the silver in a strong result for
the 27 year old. It was her best ever finish at a Diamond League individual
event.
800m
The men’s
800 was a thrilling battle to the finish as Nijel Amos of Botswana was able to
sprint past Kenya’s Emmanuel Korir on the final straight to steal the victory
1:44.29 to 1:44.50. Korir, who won the DL last year and came in as the
favorite, has rarely been hawked down at the end. And Amos hasn’t always been
known for his strategic brilliance. But both runners were able to step up in
this important moment. It will be interesting to see if this is a fluke or a
trend for Korir (and Amos) as the 800 landscape looks a bit more wide open
after one DL meet.
The USA’s
Donovan Brazier finished 3rd in the meet with a 1:44.70. While a 3rd
place result behind arguably the two most talented guys in the event is
undoubtedly a positive, I found it an oddly passive result from Donovan. He was
back a fair amount at the start and left himself a lot to do on the last lap.
Still, now is the time to figure out the strategy and every bit of experience
helps for a massive talent still looking to get into a global final for the
first time.
The
women’s race featured a familiar figure at that front. Caster Semenya was
arguably more dominate than ever as she absolutely obliterated a star-studded
field that included the most recent world and Olympic medalists behind her. She
dropped a 1:54.98 to win by almost 2 full seconds against Francine Niyonsaba.
USA’s Ajee Wilson grabbed third in 1:58.83 and Raevyn Rogers placed 5th.
Rogers mixed it up well with Wilson and got in a strong rep against the US
record holder. I thought this was a very encouraging performance from her, even
if she couldn’t quite hold on for a spot in the top 3 overall.
Men’s Throws
The Discus
was all about Daniel Stahl. The Swede threw the Diamond League Record three
different times and put together a consistent string of throws around 70
meters. Meanwhile, nobody else could crack 67. Stahl, who turns 27 this August,
has yet to win a global title but will undoubtedly be the favorite this year.
That said, he was chucking it well in 2017 (71.29 best) and still had to settle
for Silver and in Rio, he didn’t even make the final. In 2018 he was second at
Euro’s and 3rd in the Diamond League Final. So the guy needs to prove
himself in the big moments, but this event showed just how much of a cushion he
has at this point in the season.
Nice result
from the USA’s Reggie Jagers, who took 4th overall in a strong
Discus field. Jagers did not throw in any DL events last year, but did win the
USA Championship with a monster 68.61 throw.
Three
Americans were in the Men’s Shot Put final in Doha, including the eventual
winner Ryan Crouser. Crouser put a 22.13 early and nobody was able to catch up.
On paper, Crouser has owned this event as he has already been over 22 meters 4
times in 2019 (twice indoors) and 9 times in 2018. But Crouser didn’t even
medal in the 2017 London Championships and he was 3rd at last year’s
DL final. You can argue that Tomas Walsh (second in Doha with a 22.06) has had
his number since the 2016 Olympics and he was lurking not far behind him in
this one.
Longer Stuff
In the
3000m Steeplechase, American Hilary Bor stole the show. Although Bor ended up
second behind Morocco’s Steeplechase king Soufiane El Bakkali, he made a hard
surge on the final lap and nearly broke the heavy favorite. He was rewarded with
a lifetime best 8:08.41. El Bakkali never really looked comfortable in this
race and seemed at multiple points like he would drop completely from
contention, but ultimately class prevailed as he dropped an 8:07.22 for the
gold. He will need to get a lot sharper if he is going to take down Conselsus
Kipruto in the World Championships when he returns to Doha.
In the
men’s 1500, the top contenders finished at the front of the race as expected.
But it wasn’t quite the order most would have guessed. Elijah Manangoi held on
against a hard charging Timothy Cheruiyot as the Kenyans went 1-2 to lead a 1
through 7 sweep for the country. Manangoi won worlds over Cheruiyot in 2017,
but Tim had been the man in 2018 (including a DL victory and a 3:28.41).
Ultimately, it seems like Manangoi just has the better kick if the pace isn’t
super fast (3:32 was the winning time in Doha).
The
race of the day was probably the women’s 3,000 meters. It was a battle between
world record holders Genzebe Dibaba and Beatric Chepkoech, but the winner was
somebody else. And few people were surprised. Hellen Obiri, who just recently
was crowned the IAAF World Cross Country champion, put the pedal to the medal
on the final two laps of the 3K and broke the furious kick of Dibaba to grab
the win in 8:25.60 (Dibaba was 8:26.20). Obiri, who already has major wins on
the track, is a phenomenal racer and really showed her class with a perfectly
executed race against a deep field. The 3k may even be under distance for her
at this point as she may try the 10k-5k double at some point over the next two
global championships.
Shout
out to Lilian Rengeruk who fell late in the race while in the top pack, but
still managed to get back up and take 3rd overall in a new personal
best time of 8:29.02.
The Road to Doha: The Road is Long
As
indoor track ends, it’s time to turn our focus to the outdoor season and what
is sure to be another exciting year. Starting in May, the qualification window for
the Tokyo Olympics opens up (technically its already open for some of the less
contested events) and the Doha Diamond League Meeting is on May 3rd.
But it’s another Doha event that will be the major focus of the 2019 season:
the IAAF World Championships.
This
year’s world outdoor championships are not what your used to. By the time the
games close, it will actually be October, meaning high schoolers and collegiates
will be fully engaged in cross country by the time the professional track
season is finished. Because of the climate in Doha, the championships will take
place from September 27th to October 6th. For comparison,
the 2017 championships in London ran from August 4th to August 13th
and the championships haven’t dipped into September since 2011 (when the last
day was of competition was still only the 4th). We are talking about
an unprecedented schedule which will make things very tricky for competitors
training schedules.
For
starters, the USA Championships (which will be the qualifying event for Worlds)
are held at the end of July. It’s roughly a month later than the championships
are typically held, but still two months out from the games. That’s an early
peak for professionals who are aiming to compete for medals in the fall.
Things
are especially complicated for NCAA athletes looking to compete at national
championships. Most years, NCAA athletes only have to hold their peak for a
couple extra weeks before USAs, but this year they will have to last from June
8th (the end of NCAAs) to July 25th. Personally, I’m
comfortable with this time increase. If you are nervous about holding your peak
until July, imagine holding it until October? But typically, America has some
of their best guys and girls competing at the collegiate level so we will
potentially lose talent that isn’t willing to give up 4 more months for intense
training.
The
Wild Card system is also different from year’s past. Typically, the reigning
world champion (from 2 years earlier) and the reigning diamond league champion
(from 1 year earlier) are automatically qualified for the world championships
and, as a result, their country can send 4 in that event. However, because the championships
are so late, the 2019 Diamond League will end before the championships
(atypical), meaning that the 2019 DL Champs rather than the 2018 DL Champs will
get the wild cards. Since the DL doesn’t end until after USAs, this means that
its possible someone who gets 4th at the US Championships will find
out a month or so later that they have qualified for worlds because one of the
top 3 finishers won the Diamond League Final. It makes standard chasing very
important through August for anyone who was even in contention for a qualifying
spot at their national championships.
Global Track Check In
Laura Muir at the European
Championships
This past weekend, I watched most of the European Indoor
Championships in Glasgow because yes, I am that cool. I’m not really sure how
much we should be taking away from an indoor event some seven months out from the
World Championships in Doha, but I have to say I was very impressed with the
performances from Laura Muir.
In the 3,000 meters, Muir went up against Konstanze
Klosterhalfen of the Nike Oregon Project. Koko had been a tare since joining up
with the most infamous training group in the USA, including a dominate 4:19.98
to win the Millrose Games Mile and an 8:32 in the 3k in Germany a week later.
But Muir absolutely smashed Kloserhalfen in their duel at the Euro Indoors,
dropping an 8:30.61 with a blazing final k.
Two days later, Muir lead wire to wire in the 1500, easily
outclassing the rest of the field, including the world #2 in the 1500 this year
Sofia Ennaoui. Again, she torched the track in the final 200 meters with a kick
that I didn’t know she had available. It seems like a new weapon she recently
added to her arsenal and it makes her very dangerous in the more tactical world
championship finals (where she has had her fair share of struggles).
It’s still very early, but the Scots on Team Muir have a
lot more to celebrate recently than Shelby Houlihan fans here in the states
might.
Indoor Track
In case you haven’t noticed, indoor tracks have become
pretty darn quick. Right up the east coast in Boston, one track in particular
has stood out. On Sunday, Yomif Kejelcha absolutely smashed the indoor world
record in the mile (and came within inches of breaking the 1500 record en
route) with a 3:47.01. That’s not only 1.45 seconds faster than anybody in
history, but when you compare it to outdoor times, it’s the fastest mile we’ve
seen since 2007: Alan Webb’s American Record (shout out to the ghost of Steve
Scott).
But this wasn’t the first moment of glory for this indoor
track. Just a year earlier, Edward Cheserek ran a then #2 all-time mark of
3:49.44 on the blazing fast surface. And before all of that, Galen Rupp owned a
permanent wing on the track where he chased American Records in everything from
the 5k to the mile (he tapped out a 3:50.92 in 2013).
By the way, it wasn’t just Yomif blasting the all-time
list on Sunday. Johnny Gregorek dipped under 3:50 with his 3:49.98 mile to move
to the #6 position all-time and Sam Prakel matched Marcus O’Sullivan’s 10th
ranked mark. Neither have ever topped that outdoors which probably isn’t all
too shocking when you consider Olympic Gold Medalist Matt Centrowitz’s outdoor
best is “just” 3:50.53.
So that’s really the point I was (quite long-windedly)
getting around to here. Are indoor tracks actually faster than outdoor tracks? When
guys who are likely 5k specialists such as Kejelcha, Cheserek and Rupp are soaring
to some of the fastest miles of all-time (marks they will likely never equal
outdoors), should we begin to give more credence to the idea that indoor
facilities are really the fastest we have available?
IAAF World
Rankings
The IAAF has come out its new world ranking system and they
seem ready to publicize it. The list is all over their official website in some
form or another, categorizing runners current rankings, equivalent result
scores and meet categories.
In case you haven’t seen (because only about 1% of the
track community has), the IAAF has set up a system that aims to standardize
performances based on the time (results score) and place in a given meet. The
bigger the meet (the highest being the world championships/Olympic games), the
more potential placing points that are available. The rankings then take an average
of these performance metrics and rank the athletes in a given event based on
said average. There’s a full, much more detailed and complex explanation
available for those who are into that sort of thing on the IAAF website (I’ve
already read the whole thing unsurprisingly).
If you’re any sort of track fan, I think it’s a lot of
fun to click around the rankings. There are certainly some flaws (the NCAA meet
results do not place out very well against many top Euro meets, despite the
fact that it had likely the best competitors in the world in the men’s and
women’s 400 hurdles and men’s 400), but I think it’s really helpful to have a
starting point metric for, say, where one of the USA’s pole vaulters stack up
against the best in the world.
What I find particularly interesting is the fact that the
points are normalized across events so, in theory, you can rank a steeplechaser
against a triple jumper or a marathon runner against a decathlete. I don’t
think they actually intend to use this part of the rankings for anything (the individual
event rankings could be used for future global championship qualifying), but it’s
a fun little activity. Beatrice Chepkoech, recent world record holder in the
steeple, ranks #1 on the women’s side while the USA’s 200 meter man Noah Lyles
is tied with 400 hurdler Abderrahman Samba of Qatar. Freshly minted marathon
world record holder Eliud Kipchoge comes in at #3 (my wife says he got robbed).
2018 XC State Previews and Predictions
Oh, hey
there guys. It’s your buddy etrain, clinging to his last remnants of relevancy.
No, I have not been following the state landscape as closely as I have in
year’s past, but of course that won’t stop me from throwing out some crazy
predictions and writing super long blog posts! It’s state week for goodness
sake.
I wrote
some previews and then I’m actually going to be making the trip up to states on
Saturday morning as part of my “book tour” (a much easier trip now that I live
in District 1 Pennsylvania again). I’m certainly not “back”, so you’ll want to
keep up with the new blog out there (http://pahsrunninghub.blogspot.com/).
When I take a break from writing fiction to work on whatever it is you call my
predictions, I’ll be sending it over there.
So skim
the previews, support the new blog and maybe check out the book if you’ve got
some free time. And good luck out there,
runners and fans. Watch out for deer.
General Thoughts
A Preview
AA Preview
AAA Preview
The Running Diaries Book Signing?
Thank you to everyone who has supported the site over the years. As you guys may know, during my blogging retirement, I've been working on my own fiction book, called The Running Diaries. I've completed the first two parts of the series and both books are available on Amazon. If you've enjoyed my writing on this site over the years, hopefully you'll enjoy the books.
I'm thinking about making a trip up to XC states in a few weeks and I think it might be cool to do a book signing up there for the small number of you out there who have supported the blog and bought the book. Let me know what you guys think about the idea and if there's some support, I'll schedule a drive up to Hershey and pack some sharpies.
https://www.amazon.com/Running-Diaries-Part-I/dp/1983032220/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
https://www.amazon.com/Running-Diaries-Part-II/dp/1723741817/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1539864705&sr=1-1
I'm thinking about making a trip up to XC states in a few weeks and I think it might be cool to do a book signing up there for the small number of you out there who have supported the blog and bought the book. Let me know what you guys think about the idea and if there's some support, I'll schedule a drive up to Hershey and pack some sharpies.
https://www.amazon.com/Running-Diaries-Part-I/dp/1983032220/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
https://www.amazon.com/Running-Diaries-Part-II/dp/1723741817/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1539864705&sr=1-1
2018 States - AAA Preview
AAA – Individual
Early
in the season, Zach Kinne was the guy. He was drawing Nate Affolder
comparisons, winning at Foundation and Paul Short and establishing North
Allegheny as a contender. Kinne’s taken a few small hits, but he’s still the
same guy who dominated in the early season. He just happened to get caught
using an aggressive style on a course that can hit back if you try and go too
fast too soon. The real question is, mentally, how will he handle that race.
I’m hopeful that it doesn’t impact him and we can see him chase a fast time on
this course, but you never know.
Regardless
of how Kinne bounces back, I’ve got this weird feeling that Dan McGoey is going
to run away with this race. For whatever reason, my gut says McGoey could pull
off a Jake Brophy-esque junior performance. If you don’t remember (you probably
don’t) as a junior, Jake Brophy ran 15:24 on the old state layout and put about
15 seconds on everyone else in the field to win the state title and smash the
course record (all in the last mile or so). McGoey just seems locked into me, I
think he’s going to run clutch and I think he has the ability to close hard
after a reasonable start. In my eyes, somebody will make this race quick and
McGoey can hang in the pack and use his strength to close them down.
I think
Christian McComb may finish as District One’s top guy. I just believe in the
Boyertown magic. Jason Weller (2nd districts, 1st
states), Mark Dennin (2nd districts, 1st states), Brett
Kelly (5th districts, 3rd states) and then the awesome
races from McComb and Derafelo last year make me think McComb is going to
bounce back and surprise this weekend. Plus, I think this race will be quicker
than the District meet started which could further help out McComb. He’s in my
top 3.
Patrick
Anderson is an interesting name. I’ve respected this kids heart since his
stretch run to close out his sophomore season and he’s been racing all year
with the top two guys in the state. He beat both of them at Tri States and,
although he couldn’t hang on at WPIALs, proved he’s fearless. He won’t let
anybody get away early and he might have the strength to close them down. But
he too is going to need to be mentally strong as he had a rough finishing
stretch of his own last week.
Interesting
to see what Ketler will bring this weekend. He was 6th last year,
but wasn’t even his team’s #1 guy until this past week at WPIALs. But that was
the case last year too and the guy turned it on perfectly for the stretch run. Ketler
is a senior in a field where many of the top names are juniors. You can’t count
out that extra seasoning and feel for the moment. He’s won a state championship
before in the DMR and anchored on some big stages.
The
District 1 champion Cole Walker is another name we have to talk about.
Historically, the District One champ does pretty well at states. In 2017, 2015,
2014, 2013, 2012 and 2010 the D1 champ was also the state champ. Cole Walker
looked very strong and under control en route to his district win. He’s also
proven he can be clutch, running a monster 3200 for a state medal last spring.
Walker has great track speed and that was sure to translate to Districts, but
states at Hershey will be a different animal. But Walker’s talent is undeniable
and he certainly could steal the championship. He’s in my top 5, but I’m just a
little worried about his experience on this kind of stage.
Ultimately,
I think this is going to be a WPIAL heavy race, assuming they can survive the
tough conditions they have run in the past two weeks. Christian Fitch is a top
10 threat, Sam Owori is always a factor, Peter Costentino’s consistently has
been impressive and Leachman, Marmol, Kaulbaugh and others have proven they are
medal threats. In terms of top talent, I think the WPIAL will show their
strength at this meet.
As for
District 3, I can’t get a read on these guys at all. There’s been so much
flipping around at the top between Dorenkamp, Foster, Wisner, Klingenberg,
Knepper, Shields, Miller and Grucelski. And sure I just named everybody in the
district, but any of those guy could be the top dog at states! My money is on
Wisner because of his years of experience and the fact that Carlisle typically
brings their “A” game for states, but you never know. I’m not super high on the
D3 teams, but I think the D1 individuals are going to mix it up for some big
time medals.
Typically
the top sophomore at states is at least in the top 12. The past three seasons,
the top soph has placed 3rd overall which is incredible. I don’t see
that happening this year, but Brayden Harris is ultra-talented and could be a
top 5 threat if things break right. He won Mid Penns and Districts and was in
the mix for the W at Carlisle as well. Plus his teammate has experience peaking
for states as Chayce Macknair was a surprise medal winner last fall. Aiden
Barnhill is a wild card in the sophomore discussion and is the guy I think may
end up swinging the state title in either direction. Odds say we are going to
get around 3 sophomore state medalists and West is hoping Barnhill ends up one
of them. Uninoville’s McIntyre is the other big name with medal aspirations
(and 15:41 is going to get you into that discussion). Dieter Burckes is a fun
long shot and maybe even John Zawislak if he recaptures the magic he had at
Hershey last year.
One
last thing that I found interesting was Henderson’s breakout freshman Gavin
Brophy. He ran 16:01.8 to take 24th at Districts. That kind of
time/place combination puts him on a list of elite frosh performers like Carlos
Shultz, Jake Brophy and Spencer Smucker (of Henderson) who all went on to be
top 30 finishers at states (Smucker got a medal). I don’t want to put that kind
of pressure on Gavin Brophy, but he’s a big talent in a good program that may
end up in the top 50. He and Calvin Pash are interesting names to watch. The
other big name frosh is probably Alex Kane who has been awesome this year and
could end up the #1 D11 guy at states if things break right.
|
Name
|
Grade
|
School
|
District
|
|||
|
1
|
1
|
Dan
|
McGoey
|
Jr
|
North
Allegheny
|
7
|
|
2
|
2
|
Patrick
|
Anderson
|
Jr
|
Mount
Lebanon
|
7
|
|
3
|
Christian
|
McComb
|
Jr
|
Boyertown
|
1
|
|
|
4
|
3
|
Zach
|
Kinne
|
Sr
|
North
Allegheny
|
7
|
|
5
|
4
|
Cole
|
Walker
|
Jr
|
Unionville
|
1
|
|
6
|
5
|
Tyler
|
Wirth
|
Sr
|
Wallenpaupack
|
2
|
|
7
|
6
|
Payton
|
Sewall
|
Sr
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
8
|
Noah
|
Demis
|
Jr
|
North
Penn
|
1
|
|
|
9
|
Brayden
|
Harris
|
So
|
Mifflin
County
|
6
|
|
|
10
|
7
|
Seth
|
Ketler
|
Sr
|
Seneca
Valley
|
7
|
|
11
|
Christian
|
Fitch
|
Jr
|
Fox
Chapel
|
7
|
|
|
12
|
Chayce
|
Macknair
|
Sr
|
Mifflin
County
|
6
|
|
|
13
|
8
|
Sam
|
Owori
|
Sr
|
Seneca
Valley
|
7
|
|
14
|
9
|
Jack
|
Wisner
|
Sr
|
Carlisle
|
3
|
|
15
|
10
|
Vincent
|
Twomey
|
Jr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
16
|
11
|
Peter
|
Cosentino
|
Sr
|
Mount
Lebanon
|
7
|
|
17
|
Andrew
|
Foster
|
Sr
|
Ephrata
|
3
|
|
|
18
|
Evan
|
Dorenkamp
|
Sr
|
Manheim
Township
|
3
|
|
|
19
|
12
|
Isaac
|
Valderrabano
|
Sr
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
20
|
Brandan
|
Knepper
|
Sr
|
Mechanicsburg
|
3
|
|
|
21
|
13
|
Cole
|
Driver
|
Sr
|
Unionville
|
1
|
|
22
|
14
|
Ethan
|
McIntyre
|
So
|
Unionville
|
1
|
|
23
|
15
|
Mike
|
Donnelly
|
Jr
|
Haverford
|
1
|
|
24
|
Zach
|
Leachman
|
Jr
|
Mars
|
7
|
|
|
25
|
16
|
Connor
|
Shields
|
Sr
|
Warwick
|
3
|
|
26
|
Joey
|
Litvin
|
Jr
|
Lower
Merion
|
1
|
|
|
27
|
Josh
|
Lewin
|
Jr
|
WC
East
|
1
|
|
|
28
|
17
|
Bradden
|
Koors
|
Jr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
29
|
Luke
|
Klingenberg
|
Sr
|
Cumberland
Valley
|
3
|
|
|
30
|
Jason
|
Cornelison
|
Sr
|
Cheltenham
|
1
|
|
|
31
|
Patrick
|
Theveny
|
Jr
|
Penncrest
|
1
|
|
|
32
|
18
|
Owen
|
Isham
|
Sr
|
State
College
|
6
|
|
33
|
19
|
Ethan
|
Maher
|
Jr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
34
|
Zack
|
Marmol
|
Jr
|
Peters
|
7
|
|
|
35
|
Tyler
|
Clifford
|
Jr
|
Perk
Valley
|
1
|
|
|
36
|
Ian
|
Miller
|
Sr
|
Manheim
Township
|
3
|
|
|
37
|
Rob
|
O'Brien
|
Sr
|
USC
|
7
|
|
|
38
|
Dalton
|
Kalbaugh
|
Jr
|
Shaler
|
7
|
|
|
39
|
20
|
Aiden
|
Barnhill
|
So
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
40
|
21
|
Dieter
|
Burckes
|
So
|
Wallenpaupack
|
2
|
|
41
|
John
|
Zawislak
|
So
|
Spring
Ford
|
1
|
|
|
42
|
22
|
Paul
|
Ghantous
|
Sr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
|
43
|
23
|
Kyle
|
Kutney
|
Sr
|
CR
South
|
1
|
|
44
|
24
|
Kevin
|
Wagner
|
Sr
|
DT
West
|
1
|
|
45
|
Nathan
|
Grucelski
|
Sr
|
Conestoga
Valley
|
3
|
|
|
46
|
25
|
Andrew
|
Kollitz
|
So
|
North
Allegheny
|
7
|
|
47
|
26
|
Linus
|
Blatz
|
Sr
|
Owen
J Roberts
|
1
|
|
48
|
Trentin
|
Overcash
|
Sr
|
Chambersburg
|
3
|
|
|
49
|
27
|
Cosmo
|
Cardone
|
Sr
|
Easton
|
11
|
|
50
|
28
|
Matt
|
Zilligen
|
Sr
|
LaSalle
|
12
|
AAA – Team
I’m
surprised to find that my team title race is between DT West and LaSalle. I’ve
suddenly moved to counting out North Allegheny after I proclaimed them state
favorites on the Hub a few weeks ago. LaSalle’s District performance in what
was essentially a very competitive practice was super quick. Those times at
Belmont are awesome and they’ve got a really deep top 7. Meanwhile, DT West was
great with 4 guys sub 16 at Lehigh which was more than I was expecting (of
course that may be the ignorance talking). Both teams really stepped it up when
the lights were bright.
I still
like NA’s chances to be competitive at the top, but I’m a little worried about
Kinne as I mentioned earlier. They need both of their horses to be clicking to
knock off these other squads who just have so much depth. I think Kollitz could
be a difference maker, but James and Nalepa (and Turkovich and Foody) will be
the most important pieces. Typically, you need 4-5 guys around the top 50 to
win states. That wasn’t the case last year, but it’s been the case basically
every other year since we moved to 3 classifications. Considering the strength
of LaSalle and DT West, I’ll be stunned if the winning team doesn’t have all their
guys in the top 60 places overall. That’s what NA is up against.
None of
these three teams really wowed me at states last year. I thought LaSalle was
clearly the best team on paper, but CRN nearly stole the title. If it wasn’t
for a big day from Ghantous, LaSalle may have ended up second. DT West was the
district champs, but CRN took care of them at states. NA was outside the top 10
overall. So as far as I’m concerned all these teams have something major to
prove. Having something to prove is a key positive for each program, but also a
mental barrier they need to be ready to overcome.
Unionville
is suddenly a really interesting wild card. If you put their performance at
districts up against CRN’s performance at districts last year (you know, the
team that went on to tie for the state championship), there’s not a crazy
discrepancy is there? If Unionville runs to their potential, they can get to
130 or under for points and maybe steal this thing. On the flip side, when CRN
showed up to states they were the reigning state champs and had plenty of
experience on their side. Unionville is a lot less experienced with a lot less
recent state pedigree so I have a harder time believing they leave with a team
trophy. James Conway sneaking into the top 40 would be huge, especially if his
other teams get on the medal stand. You can talk yourself into a Unionville
title pretty quickly, but one off day from one of their stars and they are
fighting just to stay in the top 10 (take a look at Henderson 2014 for the team
they kind of resemble in my head).
The WPIAL
squads will contend and you can be the D1 squads will too. It’s no secret that
D1 has a consistent resume of performing on the big stage and the district was
deeper than ever this year. CR South has really convinced me they are a
dangerous sleeper. I don’t see them cracking the top 5, but they could snipe
one of these WPIAL squads who, on paper, have to be ranked ahead of them. And,
oh by the way, Seneca Valley and Mount Lebanon weren’t all that far away from
North Allegheny at districts. One slip up from McGoey or Kinne and one big day
from one of these school’s #5 runner and they could end up the top team from
out west.
So like
I said in my general info, I projected out the state meet to every runner and I
ended up with a tie between LaSalle and DT West at 96 points a piece. We’ve
already had ties in 2011, 2012 and 2017 involving a District One team and the
Catholic League champs. Could we have another one this year? The trickiest
things for me are: is Twomey ready to take a leap and be a top 10 guy at
states? His Belmont times say so. Are Barnhill and Valderrabano medal
contenders or are they behind LaSalle’s pack? Is Paul Ghantous ready to double
down on his clutch race from a year ago with a top 30 finish?
Ultimately,
I think the race will be swung by Wagner for DT West or Zilligen for LaSalle
those are my guesses. I’m interested to see which guys win that match-up. I’m
banking on Wagner having a big day and sneaking into the top 50 plus I have
some medals going to two of his teammates and only of the Explorers. But all
that still leads to a tie in the final standings. So maybe I should put a
little faith in the depth of the defending champions rather than look for
excuses to knock them off.
Here
are my picks:
10. CB
East
9. Owen
J Roberts
8.
Haverford
7. CR
South
6.
Mount Lebanon
5. Unionville
4. Seneca
Valley
3.
North Allegheny
2.
LaSalle
1. DT
West
It’s
harder to be the hunted the hunter. I’ll go with West for the win! Should be
fun to get smack talked by all the LaSalle guys during the award ceremony …
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