Event by Event Predictions: AA 800m

This race will play a large role in determining how good Domenic Peretta really is. He ran nearly 5 seconds faster than anyone else this past weekend at Districts. The next closest seed is at 1:57.21. But Peretta will have to deal with the 1600m and he is just a sophomore so there is some variability. But you can't decide the winner until you decide the finalists. So here we go.

Heat 1

Nick Scullin, Andrew Garrett, Tyrell Maddox, and David Fletcher are the 4 I'd pick to get the Autos to the final. Then I think it will likely be some combination of Steely, McClusick, and Parsons with Morgan and Sutton being some long shots worth mentioning. I lean towards Parsons here because of some of the XC achievements and his brother's accolades. Then it's kind of a toss up between Steely and McClusick here. When it doubt I tend to trust the D4 guys after their excellent performances a year ago.

Heat 2

Goodson, Arzie, Perretta, and Koryak. I think all these guys are really strong runners and if I had to pick a Heat to produce the state champion I would say this is the heat. But that mainly stems from Goodson and Peretta who I think are the top two in this race. Beyond these 4, I expect Hinkel, Nicosia, and Graf. The top 4 here are probably going to be well clear of this chase pack but I do like Hinkel and Nicosia to drop a decent chunk of time from districts with the right competition.

When the dust clears I see Steely, McClusick, Parsons and Hinkel joining the others on time.

In the final, it comes down to how fresh Perretta is feeling and who can rise up to challenge. Last year Curt Jewett ended up surprising a lot of people and winning the 8 after the DQ in the 16. He had fresh legs that day and that allowed him to beat a beast like Smathers who was doubling off the 16. In this race I don't know if there is a clear answer to who will be Jewett to Perretta who is playing the Smathers role perhaps.

Or maybe we should just believe that Perretta is that good. He's just a sophomore, but he is showing signs he might be Sam Havko good (4:10-1:52 both completely solo in 2009). However, I always get scared to bet high on the young guys. And I have watched Jonathan Goodson all year. I predicted Boiling Springs would be well out of it on the anchor leg on the 4x8 and a hungry Jonathan Goodson could come back with a vengenace in the open later on. There is a large gap between season bests for these two (about 4 seconds) but Goodson cut out the 16 to focus on the 8 and I appreciate that decision and I put big weight into those type of moves.

I think Koryak should have a strong race as well, he was possibly a bit discouraged at districts after taking it out hard and fading. I think Garrett should be dangerous in this race as well with no 4x8 to worry about. He is one of the few in this race who does not have to double. Same goes for Fletcher although he likely was pushed a bit more than Garrett at his district meet because he ended up second to Scullin. 

After some careful consideration here is how I see the medals being distributed:

1. Goodson 1:55.08

2. Peretta 1:55.78

3. Koryak 1:56.89

4. Garrett 1:56.95

5. Scullin 1:57.22

6. Fletcher 1:57.65

7. Maddox 1:57.68

8. Parsons 1:57.92