Event by Event Predictions: AAA 1600m

I kinda think that 1600m finals might be easiest to make at this point (although with James Smith out of the 800m, the first heat of the 8 now looks significantly easier than the second). It's not like there isn't a ton of awesome guys in the 16. It's just that in the other events there are a TON of awesome guys. 

So here is what the heats look like:
Heat 1
A fresh Billy Caldwell, a fresh Connor Holm and a dry Jeff Van Kooten all are projected by me to get a Q out of the first heat. Then I think last year's PA #1 Zach Brehm is also getting a big Q. That leaves a group of Barchet, Luckanitz and Hopkins with an outside shot of Wilson (doubling off 4x8 which worries me), Matt Brown, and Kolbe Short (4:26 was a solid PR and it came in rough conditions). I think this a cool group of guys and someone will take the next step to an A lister, but not sure who. I'd be surprised if Barchet isn't a finalist with the year he has had this spring. He has really been on fire, but you never know in these state prelims when kicks and closing speeds can play a factor. 

Heat 2
Colin Abert, Nate Sloan, Belfatto and Russell are my Qs out of this heat. This is a bit of a tough heat. I really like guys like Espinal, Gebhart, McDonald, Sjoreen, Grace and Nissley. Any of those guys could slip their way under 4:20. That's what makes it scary for anyone who is not in the top 4 in Heat 1. I think Heat 2 will be faster and possibly by a decent chunk. Sjoreen I think gets through out of this heat. The Stoga guys have been impressive all year and Gunnar and Marston lead the way. After Sjori things get a bit tougher for me to pick. I'm really on the Espinal bandwagon (going big with district 11 this weekend hopefully won't come back to bite me) and he's finally fresh for an open race after doubling and tripling forever. If he isn't too burned out he gets to the final. Then for me it's a toss up between Grace and McDonald. Yeah you could make arguments for the D7 kids out of heat 1 or the D3 guys but I keep coming back to these two. Basically of my irrational fear of doubling, I've got McDonald edging out Grace but it won't be hard for Grace to battle his way into the final given his achievements to date. 

So Barchet, McDonald, Sjoreen and Espinal on to the finals on time.

And now for the finals. Guys expected to be doubling in this final: Brehm, Russell, Barchet. I believe those 3 have the 3 fastest times this year out of AAA boys (maybe Caldwell is in there by a fraction of a second). So you can argue the best 3 guys in the field are also the most tired. That usually makes for a toss up result.

I expect Russell to be tired. Fresh Russell against this field would be in the drivers seat. Brehm has yet to show signs he is back in sub 4:10 shape and Tony is no doubt in sub 4:10 shape. But he is going to be tired. That 2 mile field is loaded and it's loaded with guys who won't mess around on the pace. Somebody makes that thing quick I have to believe. So in the 16 he is going to be tired. He won't be able to do his signature run hard from the front and try and blow everyone away and chase meet records. I feel that makes him beatable on this day. I'm not saying he necessarily will be beat, but I think he is going to be challenged.

Belfatto has the 4:11 speed and blasted a 4:23 to win by 7 seconds over a 4:20 guy in Matt Brown at an oddly slow District meet in Philly. Belfatto was the runner up indoors in the mile and is hungry for a little revenge on Russell after Penn. Belfatto also has strong 800m speed to try and outkick Tony coupled with a lack of fear to chase after him if he goes out hard. Brehm has the closing speed as well and has proven he has solid strength to hang around and then throw the kick down at the end.

And then of course there is Billy Caldwell. He moved up to the 1600m this year and picked the 16 over the 8 which stunned me (but turned out to be a very intelligent decision, especially considering the 4x8 didn't advance). He definitely has the closing speed, but does he have the strength? Russell still may take this bad boy out in 2:05 or faster and that is not a pace many people can hang with. Russell has been doing that all year, he's used to going out over his head and hanging on. Caldwell? Not sure that's the case.

But you know who is used to going out over his head and hanging on? Colin Abert of Easton! The king of that move the last two years at XC states. This the first time he looks healthy on the track and that's a good sign. His XC credentials indicate he is a 9:15ish 2 miler at least. I still feel the 32 is his best event but opting for the 16 over the 32 looks to be a very smart move. The 32 is absolutely loaded and Abert has already been picked to WIN the 16 by one fan and I don't think it's a crazy prediction! Abert likes to run the way Russell likes to run. If he is fresher and hangs on maybe he can surprise and win? 

And then of course there is Jeff Van Kooten and Nate Sloan. Sloan was consistently solid all year and then was upset by the up and coming Jeff Van Kooten. Here is the thing about Van Kooten: we haven't seen his best yet. I think he is the most likely guy in this field to PR. Not only that, I think Van Kooten has pretty good odds to win. Again, I'm not saying he will, but this guy has untapped potential. He is focused, under the radar and ready to surprise. 

I think a fresh Connor Holm will drop a decent chunk of time as well. He has a great kick which can come in handy at race's end and he has really impressed in recent weeks seemingly finally figuring out the somewhat difficult transition from the 8 to the 16. Holm and Caldwell are likely this year's Kevin Moy with Holm definitely being more like Moy in the way that he has dramatically dropped time (Caldwell already had a state medal indoors and outdoors and a signature moment or two on the 4x8). 

So here's the deal .... I honestly don't think Russell can pull off this double. It's nothing personal I just think this double with that 3200m field is verging on impossible. But I'm not sure who from this 16 field is ready to be a champ, I'm not sure everyone will chase any suicide pace Russell puts out. Then again, I'm not sure everyone can afford to chase Russell around the track. So since I can't pick someone to beat him ....

1. Tony Russell 4:12.98
2. Caldwell 4:14.55
3. Brehm 4:14.87
4. Van Kooten 4:14.90
5. Belfatto 4:15.60
6. Holm 4:15.79
7. Abert 4:15.82
8. Sjoreen 4:16.32

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