The 1600m Preview

by etrain11

AA 1600m

The Setting
Domenic Peretta. He’s run the equivalent of 4:10 and 1:51 this season without ever running a fresh 800m and without losing a single race on the track. Peretta is the defending champion for both the 1600m and the 800m and, now a Junior, he is looking for more than just victories, he is looking for fast times and looking for records. The meet record in the 1600m? It’s also the state record of 4:03.22.

But surprisingly enough, Peretta does not enter the meet as the #1 seed despite his accomplishments this spring as South Williamsport’s Griffin Molino is ranked first after running 4:14.70 at districts. Molino looks sharp at season’s end and seems poised to pursue his first track state championship the week after he grabbed his first district track title. However, Molino has decided to throw his hat in the ring for the 3200m so his tired legs likely will be a factor in this event.

Also setting up as a challenger is Mercyhurst Prep’s Sebastian Curtin who won the 4x8, 16 and 8 at districts and holds a 4:16 best from Baldwin, the same meet that Peretta dropped his 4:10. Last year, Curtin earned the silver medal behind Peretta’s gold so this year’s rematch could be a shot at revenge. However, Curtin will likely be running a key leg on Mercyhurst’s #1 seeded 4x800m so he too could be pushing through tired legs, a tough task for anyone trying to take down the man child that is Dom Peretta.

This may very well end up a war of attrition. The 1, 3, 7, 11, 20, and 24 seeds are all entered in both the 3200m and the 1600m. Seeds 4, 5, 8, 16, 19, and 23 are all on teams that qualified for the 4x800m. Add in the fact that seeds 2, 9, 16, and 21 are entered in the 800m we are looking at 15 members of the field, including 8 of the top 9 seeds, that will be working through extracurricular activity this weekend.

Day One: The Trials

I won’t sit here and pretend I know the AA scene as well as the AAA one, but I do know that some of the state’s best runners were a bit slow at their district championship for a variety of reasons (doubling, tactical races, recovering from injury) which makes deciphering the picture here at states a bit trickier. It’s also unclear just how hard some guys will run in the 4x8 trials or which guys will just skip the trials completely. Here are my 12 projected finalists plus a little analysis:

Auto Qualifiers

Domenic Peretta, Simon Smith, Liam Raehsler, Cooper Leslie
Griffin Molino, Kyle Shinn, Sebastian Curtin, Colten Trimble

At Large Qualifiers

Kyle Gonoude, Tristan Forsythe, Ryan Thrush, Hunter Crawley

Possibly silly of me to project all 4 at large qualifiers from the same heat, but I do think that first heat is quite loaded. I have plenty of worries about many of the guys I have slotted for qualifying spots this weekend, mainly revolving around inexperience. Forsythe is just a freshman (even though you wouldn’t know it by the way he’s been running), but having 4 other teammates with him at states this weekend should hopefully help him out. Gonoude has been a bit of a non-factor this year after a killer Junior year that included a 3^rd place in the 1600m. His talent is enough to get him by, but he hasn’t done much to show me he’s ready to make the final beyond that. Thrush has looked awesome this year and probably could have run a killer 800m but had a blip at districts that kept him from the event. I think he gets some revenge here this weekend, good chance he ends up as an auto qualifier. I gave Crawley the last spot over guys like Delaney, Kachman and Amir Gordon (my first three to miss) because I like the way he has been running as of late and I remember his impressive stretch run during XC. Being teammates with someone like Griffin Molino can’t hurt.

The thing is, running through trials is tricky business and experience cannot be overrated. That’s why guys like Gordon, Nick Sweet and Matt Murray, who I left off the list of finalists seem like they can make noise in this event. Keep an eye on Brian Hackman as a sleeper as well. He ran 1:57ish during indoors and, if he’s not running on the 4x8, will finally get fresh legs for the 1600m. He ran well under 4:30 at Henderson earlier this spring.

Day Two: The Finals

If Molino was going to be fresh, I think I would at least entertain the thought of an upset in this race, but if you are giving Peretta a head start, it’s hard for me to imagine him losing. Last year, Dom sat back a bit and put on his kick at the right time to snag gold. This year the early indication from him is that he wants to run sub 4:10 and sub 1:50 (!) at states this year, which means going for it from the gun. To me that means the best recipe for an upset is to sit back a bit, keep him in sights and hope that he goes out over his hand and can’t maintain things on the final lap. Even fresh, I can’t see any of Peretta’s competitors running 4:10 pace and surviving.

So how fast do I think Dom can go? I’m certainly not ready to doubt his ability at this point and I’ve been in his corner for a long time. However, when he ran 4:10 he had ideal competition and conditions with fresh legs. This time around (although weather is supposed to be nice), he is going to have to do it by himself. And in the back of his mind I still believe he likes the 800m best and the more attainable state meet record may subconsciously cause him to save in the 16. However, it sounds like he was holding back when he ran 4:15 last weekend so maybe he can run 4:12 this weekend without overextending all that much.

Behind Peretta, I do see a very interesting race. I think the best 4 guys behind Peretta are Molion, Curtin, Smith and Shinn … but all of those guys are on the double this weekend. Nate Morgan and Julian Degroot-Lutzner opted for the 800m instead of the 1600m. The next tier of guys like Kachman, Leslie and Colten Trimble are all doubling as well. To me, that opens the door for a huge surprise to emerge. Someone who barely sneaks into the finals is going to crack the top 5 of this race. We might even see a huge surprise for second. I think that’s what makes the young guys like Thrush, Forsythe and Crawley so dangerous … if they get through Day 1.

Predictions

These predictions would be easier if I knew who was getting through Day 1, that’s for sure. But I don’t. And I’ve never been afraid of a challenge or being wrong (trust me, I’ve been wrong so much by now it doesn’t even phase me). Let’s get some numbers …

1. Domenic Peretta 4:12.25

2. Sebastian Curtin 4:18.93
3. Griffin Molino 4:19.57
4. Ryan Thrush 4:23.99
5. Kyle Shinn 4:25.86
6. Tristan Forsythe 4:26.74
7. Simon Smith 4:26.90
8. Colten Trimble 4:28.06

If any of those guys like Gordon, Delaney, Sweet, Murray, etc. crack that top 12 watch out for them as medal contenders in this one. I’m expecting a fair share of craziness.

AAA 1600m

The Setting
The facts are fairly spelled out. It’s been at least a decade since the last WPIAL 1600m state champion was crowned. However, the top two seeds in the event Jeff VanKooten and Mike Kolor, both hail from the West and are hoping to rewrite the history books this weekend. No one else in this field has run within 4 seconds of their marks this spring (4:10.72 and 4:11.21). Kolor has gone under 4:17 three times and run 1:55.0 or faster four times this spring. But JVK has not lost to him over his favorite distance thus far.

Behind the WPIAL standouts, there are some familiar faces. District One Champion Jaxson Hoey traded in his Malvern Prep jersey for a DTW one this spring. Last year, in the independent league, Hoey was overlooked during the PIAA hype machine that is states so his true talent (going head to head with Ritz, running the equivalent of 4:11.1 in the 1500m) went largely overlooked. He seems to be close to, if not fully, recovered from his injury during XC and unlike his injury mate Kevin Durant, he is still competing for a championship.

And of course the defending champion, Zach Brehm is looking to become the first back to back champion in the 1600m since Craig Miller. Juniors have won the title before him (Vince McNally, Drew Magaha, Tom Coyle) but none have repeated the feat as Seniors. Brehm will be hoping to create that history after a title run in the very difficult 3200m. In the past 8 years, 6 men have attempted the 32-16 double on Saturday. Only Jason Weller left with two medals (1^st and 5^th) while the other 5 finished 10^th, 9^th, 11^th, 11^th and the last didn’t make it to the start line. Brehm will be staring history in the face a lot this weekend, but this fact may be the most difficult to overcome.

Day One: The Trials

As always, the 1600m is going to provide plenty of firepower, but with the large number of 3200m scratches that occurred, the door is open for some sleepers to emerge in and around that 4:20 range. That’s also good news for anyone hoping to double as the pace, in theory, shouldn’t be too grueling in these trials. Of course you never know and there are at least a few runners who’s seed times don’t adequately reflect their talent.

Automatic Qualifiers
Jaxson Hoey, Zach Brehm, Matt Kravitz, Mike Kolor
Sam Webb, Jeff VanKooten, Sean Weidner, Ryan Barton

At Large Qualifiers

John Daly, Ben Wilson, Will Sponaugle, Josh Hoey

I broke a golden rule, picking the inexperienced frosh Josh Hoey to match his D1 performance and slip into the finals. However, I think Hoey doesn’t run like a frosh very much and his heat should be plenty fast (it seems like the clearly deeper prelim). As I have it written, three DT West guys would be in the state final which could be the first time this many runners from the same team ever made the state final. And three underclassmen from the same team? Yikes …

The hardest omissions for me were Joe Espinal and Jon Perlman, both of whom could easily snag a spot in the finals over one of the D3 guys or Hoey. Espinal has been really good this year, underratedly so, but I’m a little nervous about him running in a crowded race with top notch competition. Perlman is likely going to be in a Gunnar Sjoreen type position, the difference between him qualifying or not is less than a tenth of a second.

I crossed of Milligan because I’m a bit nervous about his 4x8-16 double. If he has to run hard on the 4x8, the 16 is going to be trouble. Someone like Stupak or Wolk from D7 may get through, but they had ideal conditions for a fast race last weekend so I’m not sure they are in a position to duplicate that. If you are looking for deep sleepers, don’t count out guys like Josh Jones and Brody Beiler, especially if Slippery Rock abandons the DMR. I’m not saying they are sure fire finalists, but they have some quality wins this year and won’t be afraid or intimidated in this group. Same can be said for Dylan Gearinger of Berwick who has had a really nice season.

Day Two: The Finals

In my eyes this is a three man race for gold: VanKooten, Kolor and Hoey. JVK and Kolor have been on another level from everyone else this year and the times back that up, but I do think that Hoey has been fairly untested this year. His 4:15 from Districts is his best for the year and, honestly, his best competition was a bunch of tired 3200m runners. There’s plenty more in the tank and I would guess at least 4:12 is in play.

The question becomes how fast can JVK and Kolor run and does adding Hoey to the mix complicate their usual side by side duals. Hoey could slip in as a Peretta type who breaks the race open and takes gold, or he could end up hanging off the back as the WPIAL boys hammer a grueling pace. According to Evan Hatton, the D7 race went out in 2:09 and the top two runners closed in about 2:01. So although Hoey’s kick is relevant here, it’s not like these guys don’t know how to close. JVK and Kolor know how to run a championship style race.

Could we see a sub 4:10 time? Believe it or not, it’s rarely been done at states. Magaha’s meet record of 4:07 is about 2 full seconds faster than Craig Miller’s #2 time of 4:09. Sam Bair has gone under 4:10 as well, but I believe that is the extent of the group. If the winner of this race goes sub 4:10, they enter some fairly legendary company and, honestly, it wouldn’t take a huge drop from any of the top 3 runners PRs for that kind of time to be run. So which of those runners is ready to take the leap to legendary status?

On talent alone, Sam Webb and Zach Brehm could undeniably be title contenders. And I will say that Webb and Brehm are two of the best doublers of their era. However, they are attempting some very difficult doubles and the numbers don’t exactly back them up. As mentioned, a 3200m runner has not finished higher than 9^th in the 16 since 2007 when Weller was 5^th. For Webb, there has been a bit more success as 6 of the past 12 4x8-16 doublers have come away with medals. That being said, just two of the 12 have finished in the top 3 and 6 of the 12 have finished 10^th or worse, including Webb’s former teammate Connor Harriman in 2013. The good news for Webb? I personally roomed with a guy who split 1:51 on the 4x8, won the 1600m and then finished third in the open 8 at states in 2009, so I know the double is possible. The bad news? Palmisano won that 1600m race in 4:13.9 using a strong kick. I can’t see this race going close to that slow considering that talent involved (the 2013 wind bowl is the only time it was slower in the past decade).

Two runners who have an excellent opportunity to make a name for themselves this weekend are John Daly (whose name actually was capitalized this time so there’s that) and Matt Kravitz. Kravitz won an earlier 1600m at Shippensburg (defeated JVK among others) in a time under 4:20. Kravitz also run sub 15:40 this year during cross at Paul Short. He’s a dangerous talent who has yet to be truly unleashed. Lowercase J has split 4:15 multiple times during indoor and has at least 5 sub 4:20 splits on record. However, he’s never run faster than 4:22ish in the open mile/1600. So Daly is either an excellent relay runner or he is sitting on a huge breakthrough.

I’m really impressed by the stretch that Ryan Barton has had. He’s dropped his PR to 4:18.09 now for 1600m and he has convinced me to slot him in the finals despite his sophomore status and limited experience. Barton’s clutch day at XC states was a big reason the team finished 4^th overall his individual development likely played a strong role in West’s decision to abandon the 4x8 and let their stars run free. I’m excited to see if he can further solidify his place among the state’s elite this weekend (and maybe DTW goes after the state record in the 4xMile this June?).

Predictions

Here’s what I’ve got …

1. Jaxson Hoey 4:10.58

2. Mike Kolor 4:10.99
3. Jeff VanKooten 4:11.07
4. Matt Kravitz 4:15.19
5. john Daly 4:15.41
6. Sean Weidner 4:16.95
7. Sam Webb 4:17.38
8. Zach Brehm 4:17.99

I've litterally gone back and forth on this none stop. I'll probably change my mind a few more times before the gun sounds at Shippensburg ...

Also we are up to a 65% chance I'll be there this Saturday. 0% chance I'll be there on Friday.