The 800m Preview

by etrain11

AA 800m

The Setting
Domenic Peretta is the in the middle of a truly historic season and enters the weekend with a chance to repeat the 1600m-800m double. He would have 4 state individual medals before he even reached his senior year. I talked briefly him attempting the 3200m-1600m-800m triple at states a while back (no idea which post) and, depending on how Brehm looks taking it on this weekend, maybe we see that from Dom in the future. But for now the focus has to be on the 1:51.96 state meet record and, according to Peretta, he’s hoping to get under the 1:50 mark.

Behind him are a slew of 1:55 runners hoping to break free and potentially steal a gold from Domenic if he slips. Aaron Morris from Springfield and Julian Degroot-Lutzner from Masterman come in as the 203 seeds, both having run 1:56 at Districts. Lutzner has run in the low 4:20s and 1:55 this year and, depending on how things unfold with the Masterman 4x8, may even have fresh legs for the final. David Fletcher from Mt Carmel is the #2 returner from last year’s state meet and has run 1:55 this year. Clay Stabolepszy, Amir Gordon and Andrew Koryak all have produced their fair share of impressive times this winter and spring.

Day One: The Trials

The AA trials in the 800m are usually somewhat wacky as one heat ends up finishing near 2 flat and the other finishes in the 1:57s and takes all the at large qualifiers with them. I don’t know why, but if you look it up I feel like it happens almost every year. No way I could possibly guess which one will be faster this year (the 2^nd one because it has Peretta and he can run 1:57 in his sleep), so I just took a traditional approach here.

Automatic Qualifiers

Aaron Morris, Clay Stabolepszy, Julian Degroot-Lutzner, Mark Arzie
David Fletcher, Andrew Koryak, Nate Morgan, Domenic Peretta

At Large Qualifiers

Matt Gross, Amir Gordon, Caleb Kiefer, Matt Barninger

This was a bit tricky to pick as I think there are some solid sleepers here and guys like Adam Moore and Shane Mills have run fairly quick this year, but I ultimately left them out. Garett Sutton could find a way into the final as well, but he is doubling off the 1600m which made me a bit nervous.

Day Two: The Trials

I hate to be disrespectful to a field of quality runners, but this is about Peretta. I’ll give both sides of the coin here.

Situation A

Peretta feels great after the 1600m and doubles the way he has been doubling all season. The state meet record is 1:51.96 by Paul Vandegrift and it seems incredibly within reach after his 1:51.50 last weekend. There’s no question he will get out hard and gun for the time. Not to name drop, but I remember in 2009, sitting in the stands with Vandegrift watching Sam Havko run the 800m. He had just won in 4:10.17 for the 1600m and went through 400m in only like 57-58 seconds I thought. Then all of a sudden he’s coming down the straightaway and closing in on 1:51-1:52 (he ended up running 1:52.77). The crowd exclaimed at the closeness to the record, but Grift just looked bored. He said he had the record long enough and he was perfectly fine with someone taking it. Well Grift I think someone is finally about to take it.

Situation B

Peretta is a bit tired after working very hard in the 16 to chase 4:10. Havko ran 4:10.17 and still could only manage 1:52.77 on the double (but Havko was never as much of a speedster as Peretta, plus he had a large negative split assuming I’m remembering correctly). Last year, Peretta seemed tired after the 1600m (there is not that much time in between) and only managed to run 1:54.0 despite running 1:52 the week before (you could tell he was visibly upset after the race, despite the gold). Keep in mind, last year he ran much more conservatively in the 1600m than he is projected to run this year. Plus, the 16 and the 8 are quite close together, it’s really no peach of a double.

My opinion is Situation A is more likely. I’m not guaranteeing a record or anything like that, but I think the odds are above 50% without a doubt. Peretta was just a sophomore last year and he is a lot stronger now thanks to the extra year. Plus, last year’s 1:52 came after a rain delay so it wasn’t a true back to back like his 4:15-1:51 this year. And of course, I have to stand by what I said in my mailbag post about the most likely state records to fall this year: they were all associated with the 800m.

I do think there are going to be some fast times behind Dom. I could see some guys challenging the 1:53 range if they are feeling good and they don’t get sucked out too fast by the leader. The guy to watch, in my opinion, is Clay Stabolepszy from Schuylkill Valley. Last year he ran some strong 4x8 legs and this year he has already gone toe to toe with Dylan Eddinger and won a district 3 title in the 800. He’s on fresh legs this year. The other name to watch is Aaron Morris from Springfield who will also toe the line with fresh legs and boasts a 1:56.58 mark from a dominant performance at districts last weekend. With competition he could do big things.

Depending on how the 4x8 goes, JDL and David Fletcher could both stick their nose into contention for a top 3 spot. I think both runners are fantastic, but I also believe both could be a little spent after giving their all to the relay (both relays are potential top 5 squads in my eyes and could even win gold if things break right). Arzie and Morgan from Lakeland are real wildcards. They don’t have the flashy PRs but they are gamers from a great program. They too will be doubling off a very competitive 4x8.

Predictions

1. Domenic Peretta 1:51.91
2. Clay Stabolepszy 1:53.87
3. Aaron Morris 1:54.26
4. David Fletcher 1:55.18
5. Julian Degroot-Lutzner 1:55.89
6. Amir Gordon 1:56.85
7. Nathan Morgan 1:57.60
8. Andrew Koryak 1:57.62

AAA 800m

The Setting
All eyes will be on John Lewis. After running 1:49.15 at Districts to smash the previous district record by 1.77 seconds, Lewis has his eyes set on another meet record: Tom Mallon’s 1:49.31 from 2010. Lewis also will likely be attempting to break Drew Magaha’s state record of 1:48.82 set in 2012 at the Abington Invitational, a meet that Lewis won earlier this year in 1:51. Lewis just missed the state meet and all-time record indoors, running 1:50.57 for gold so this time around he knows he won’t be able to let up even an inch if he wants to leave the meet a record holder.

Behind him, a top notch field has assembled, including indoor silver medalist and 1:50 runner Elias Graca from Fox Chapel. Graca won his district championship last weekend in 1:52.86, a comfortable margin over the rest of the field. He will be hunting for revenge against Lewis and hoping to pull a terrific upset in the process.

The field will also include 2013 state champion Zach Brehm on his third race of the weekend alongside teammate Matt Wisner. Both men have run 1:53.4 hand time this season. Dylan Eddinger, who doubled back from the 1600m last weekend in 1:53.59 and Alek Sauer, who doubled from the 4x8 in 1:53.08, both medaled indoors at the state championships and are likely to be medal contenders again.

Day One: The Trials

Every year there are a few top tier guys who don’t escape the 800m trials. I honestly think the 1:57.32 standard is probably a bit too slow and it’s led to a couple crowded qualifying heats: 13 and 14 guys in the heats. Last year 1:53 guys Cooper and Graca didn’t make it to day 2 and the previous year District One Champion Jeff Wiseman was bounced in the prelims. The moral of the story: don’t take anything for granted.

Automatic Qualifiers

Alek Sauer, Zach Brehm, Elias Graca, Ethan Gatchell
Dylan Eddinger, John Lewis, Matt Wisner, Sean McGinnis

At Large Qualifiers

Stephen McClellan, Ahmir Gordon, Andre Kelly, Khai Samuels

My early feeling is that Heat 1 looks pretty dangerous and Heat 2 doesn’t quite intimidate me as much (good news for the favorite John Lewis). McClellan, just a sophomore in his first big state championship appearance, worries me a bit despite his dominant showing at districts where he clocked a 1:54 (definitely did not see that coming). Looking back, I’ve picked against Andre Kelly basically ever chance I’ve had for some reason and I think it would be foolish to doubt him again so he makes my list. The 4x8 trials hopefully won’t exhaust him too much. Don’t forget about Khai Samuels. He ran 1:54.99 indoors and is a real talent who has been fairly untested this season so far.

There’s a few other doublers I left out with the potential to slip in like Nick Mahon, Scott Seel, Dan Williams, Brad Foust and Sean Sullivan, but I’m worried big efforts in the 4x8 prelims could derail their finalist hopes. Sullivan is probably my top pick for a guy from this group who could double back and make finals. Also, although he’s not on this list, don’t sleep on Jimmy Cooper from Conestoga. I doubted his ability at Districts and he came through twice in a row with a pair of 1:56s when his best prior to that was 1:58 (and his best prior to that was around 2 flat). He’s made big strides in the past week and has found a way to survive and advance, the motto for an 800m prelim.

Day Two: The Finals

Similar to Peretta, John Lewis comes into this field a heavy favorite with the clocking posing as his biggest competition. His 1:49.15 is the best seed time in the field by 3.71 seconds and he has run at least 1:51 on a variety of occasions this year while no one else in the field has clocked anything below 1:52 this spring in an open 800m. Lewis ran his 1:49 last week despite the fact that he had a 1:49 split already in his legs and the fact that he went out in a blistering 52ish seconds and 1:18ish through 600m. That’s flying. Unlike indoor states (where he lost his last race prior to states in the 400m at MoC), Lewis comes in with a ton of momentum and confidence.

But it wasn’t easy for Lewis indoors as Graca gave him a strong push, running within 3 tenths of a second of victory. Relative to his jaw dropper at PSU, Graca has had a quiet outdoor season. His seed of 1:52 is far behind Lewis and he has yet to have anything resembling the dominant, show-stopping performances that Lewis has had. However, Graca seems to be less comfortable at the front than Lewis and seems to rise to the competition more so than create the competition. He has a naturally opposing racing style to the Cheltenham stand out which could make for an interesting race, especially if Lewis goes out too hard and begins to fall apart the final 200m.

Graca needs a big day here. After his breakthrough indoors, he’s become something of an afterthought in the 800 with Lewis stealing the spotlight and guys like McDevitt, Ritz and even Sauer, who split 1:51.98 at Penn Relays, making headlines in his place.

Sauer has been strong in the 800m for 3 years now and was a medalist a year ago behind Brehm (I believe they are the only two returners from last year’s final). He is a killer relay runner and has translated it quite well to the 800m. I will be interested to see how he handles the double, especially if he is forced to work hard in the 4x8 as I suspect he will be. Meanwhile his district one rival Dylan Eddinger, who ran 1:53.59 last weekend, has decided to skip the 1600m to be fresh for this race. That could be a scary development for the rest of the group. Eddinger has been awesome this year and it wouldn’t surprise me if he takes another leap at states.

For a stretch during indoors-outdoors Matt Wisner was undefeated against PA competition. Although he’s lost that crown since, he’s still taken care of business in the 800m alongside running mate Zach Brehm and clocked a very fast 1:53.4. Carlisle needs his points for the team title race so he is worth keeping an eye on, especially as a late race kicker. Who knows how much in the tank his teammate, Zach Brehm, will have. There’s a chance, if the team title race appears to be over, that Brehm won’t even toe the line for the finals. This is a brutal triple so I’m not going to add any expectations, but I do know that Brehm is a gamer who is willing to make a big sacrifice to try and help out the team.

I’m still thinking a breakthrough is coming from Ethan Gatchell. I think a fast pace could lead to a big PR for him. He won convincingly at Shippensburg earlier this year at 800m and is due to crack that 1:55 mark. Stephen McClellan won’t be afraid of the fast pace (he gunned it out at districts en route to his 1:54) and, even as just a sophomore, could be a sleeper in this loaded field.

Predictions

I think the state record in the 800m is going down this year. I think Lewis is the guy to do it. There’s a very good chance it happens here. He can’t go out too far over his head, but if he can hold on to splits like 52 and 1:18, I have a hard time imagining him going out much faster than that. He’s fresh, he’s ready and he wants the record. Sorry Tom and Drew and Paul, but I think John is about to take over.

1. John Lewis 1:48.68

2. Elias Graca 1:51.62
3. Dylan Eddinger 1:51.96
4. Alek Sauer 1:52.69
5. Matt Wisner 1:53.68
6. Ethan Gatchell 1:53.94
7. Zach Brehm 1:54.22
8. Stephen McClellan 1:54.49

Prediction contest and some additional analysis from my panel of writers is coming soon! But for now I’m going to take a break from all this writing … enjoy the reading!